The government has played all their cards in the budget. Everything they do from now on is on a wing and a prayer; they’ll need to throw everything at the problem they are facing, and it is a problem of their own making. How do Labour lose the next election?

Two charts, produced by Ipsos in their Issues Monitor publication show precisely how Labour loses. But they only lose if National focuses on these.

The first chart shows the top five issues Kiwi voters care about:

They are

  1. Inflation 63% (+7% from a year ago)
  2. Crime 40% (+14%)
  3. Housing 31% (-6%)
  4. Health 31% (+2%)
  5. Climate change 23% (+5%)

It is no surprise inflation remains the most important issue, but of significance is 40% of Kiwis now put crime in their top three. This is up 14% from a year ago. This is a real Achilles’ heel for the government with its criminal-friendly policies and a Police minister who is fast gaining the nickname of Gaslighting Ginny.

Inflation is the single largest concern for voters and is almost entirely caused by profligate and wasteful spending by the government.

The government is seriously exposed on all of the top five issues. Only in Health is Labour seen to be the party with potential solutions, but that will change as the full extent of the failure of Andrew Little’s health reforms and the segregation of health services based on race starts showing awful outcomes.

The second chart shows most of the key concerns of voters and in almost all of them, Labour is exposed.

Again, the key issues, particularly the top ten are almost all caused by the failure of Government policies.

Labour loses IF National focuses on these issues. Note that GE and GM are nowhere on the list. But that’s a big IF. Presently all policy announcements are in lesser areas or non-existent issues that voters don’t care about.

National too should be mindful that “Issues facing Maori” rates just 2% in the voters’ minds. Yet National’s woke project along with that of the media is topsy turvy in this regard. Literally, no one cares, and neither should National. There are no votes in this issue for National.

By focussing on the top ten, National can make huge headway, but will they? That remains to be seen, but that is where Labour are exposed, pants down exposed.

That is how Labour loses when National shows that the government has failed in those core areas.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...