After the last three years, the National Party ought to be streets ahead of the government in the polls. This has been the most divisive government ever, from the attacks on democracy, to their soft approach to crime, to their hijacking our water system, to their attacks on our farmers, to their attempts to give power based on race. Ordinary Kiwis should be wanting to see the back of this government in the shortest time possible.
But they are not; at least, that is what the polls are telling us. Why?
National has promised to roll back Three Waters (now Ten Waters), abolish the Maori Health Authority, do something about crime – particularly youth offending, take steps to improve the economy, cut government spending, build infrastructure and reduce the cost of living. What is there in all of that that voters do not like?
I am hearing from National voters that they are considering giving their vote to Labour because of the change in prime minister to Chris Hipkins. Honestly, I just can’t believe it. Switch to ACT by all means, but go with Labour? Why would a centre-right voter do that?
The answer is simple. The problem is Christopher Luxon. The voters just don’t like him.
Firstly, I think Luxon missed a golden opportunity when he refused to go and talk to the protesters in Wellington. New to the role at the time, he could have shown some leadership by listening to the protesters and made his mark as a man prepared to listen to the concerns of the public. But he didn’t do that. If someone – anyone – from the government had gone down there and listened to what the protesters had to say, the protest would probably not have ended the way it did. But it takes guts and leadership to do that, and those voters that supported the protesters watched him treat people with real concerns as part of the ‘river of filth’ and realised that he is no prime minister-in-waiting.
Getting rid of Jacinda has proved to be a smart move by Labour. Chris Hipkins has already removed many of the policies that National has objected to, but there are still a lot of areas of concern. We need to do something about crime. We need to bring in more doctors and nurses. We need to stop spending money on consultants who write long reports on projects that never see the light of day. We need to start building some infrastructure. Labour has been promising to build houses and to get on with ‘shovel-ready’ projects for the last six years but they have still produced practically nothing of substance. Hipkins may be making promises to do better, but voters must have lost faith in Labour by now.
No; not according to the polls anyway.
But what happens next? The difficulty facing National is that they are trying to sell to voters the fact that they are the party of stability and good economic stewardship. There is nothing wrong with that except that it is boring. Sadly, with the rise of John Key, we entered a phase of personality politics, and we are still in that phase. Bill English was no match for John Key – he was boring too. Then came Jacindamania – all built on a cult of personality without substance. But Kiwis now enjoy the cult of personality, and Christopher Luxon just doesn’t have what it takes to charm the voters.
So what does National do? There have been rumours that Luxon is going to be ousted. I’m not sure that this would be a smart move. It would just give the MSM the opportunity to point out that the party is still unstable, having had five leaders in six years. Besides, who might the next leader be? The most likely person is Nicola Willis. Will she charm the voters? Honestly, I doubt that she has the personality needed for the role either. She may make a good finance minister – let’s face it, anything would be an improvement on the current one – but those destined to take the helm at Treasury do not usually make charismatic leaders. You only have to think back to Bill English to realise that.
Charisma. That is what is needed. John Key had it. Tony Blair had it. Boris Johnson definitely had it, and Jacinda had it in spades. These people had real appeal, charming the masses with their personalities and nice words. No matter that they all ended up vilified – they made it to the top job in their respective countries, and that’s what counts.
Jacinda appealed to the masses because she was ‘nice’. So many people told me how ‘lovely’ she was. But ‘lovely’ does not necessarily make a good politician, and in the end, she was exposed as being weak and ineffective. All her government will be remembered for are slogans that turned into nothing – and locking us down, and out, in our own country when the rest of the world was moving on from the pandemic.
In my opinion, we need to return to ‘boring’ politicians. Figureheads are no use unless they have a really smart team behind them, which this government certainly does not. National probably has more talent on its benches than Labour, but these days, people see themselves as voting for a president rather than a party. It is an incorrect view, adopted from the vagaries of American politics, but that is how elections are seen these days.
Christopher Luxon might be a good prime minister if he ever gets there but unfortunately, he just isn’t resonating with the voters. Chris Hipkins still seems to be winning, in spite of carrying on with many of Labour’s most unpopular and divisive policies. It makes no sense to me. What that will mean for the future of our country? Only time will tell.