Labour’s slight bounce in political fortunes has been confirmed in the latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll. The poll also confirms that voters seem to like Chris Hipkins more than the end days of the Ardern regime.

The two largest parties are tied on 34.4% with Labour up 2.7 points on last month while National is down 2.8 points. ACT is up 0.9 points to 11.7% while the Greens are down 2.8 points to 7.8%.

The smaller parties were NZ First on 2.9%, Maori Party on 2.1%, TOP on 2.0%, NZ Outdoors & Freedom on 1.0%, Democracy NZ on 0.9%, New Conservative on 0.8%, and Vision NZ on 0.2%.

PartySupportChange from last month
National34.4%down 2.8
Labour34.4%up 2.7
ACT11.7%up 0.9
Green7.8%down 2.8
NZ First2.9%up 0.1
Maori2.1%up 0.5
Other6.7%up 1.4

Those numbers give a slight upper hand to the Centre-Right. But the margins are thin. The combined projected seats for the Centre-Right is down 2 from last month to 61 but still just enough to form a government. The combined total for the Centre-Left is up 1 to 56 seats. National will be praying this is a dead cat bounce for Labour as, based on these numbers, they only just get there. It is going to put increased pressure on the misfiring Christopher Luxon, but the leaders’ numbers aren’t that helpful there for him either:

New Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins, scores a net favourability rating of +27%, which is 28 points higher than Jacinda Ardern’s final score as PM. Not shown on the graph, the new Deputy Prime Minister debuts with a net favourability rating -12%.

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability has decreased 4 points from -1% to -5% while ACT leader David Seymour dips 7 points from -4% to -11%. 

For preferred Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern was 34% last month while Chris Hipkins debuts at 30%. Luxon increases by 1 point to 26%.

Jacinda Ardern still has 9% while David Semyour is on 8%, Winston Peters on 3.5%, Chlöe Swarbrick on 1.9% James Shaw on 1.3%, Matt King on 1.3%, Leighton Baker on 1.0% and Nicola Willis on 0.7%.

Curia poll

There is already disquiet in National’s ranks about the performance of Christopher Luxon. These numbers won’t help that. I know there is talk because MPs are whispering out loud and I’m picking it up from them.

National thinks they are going to sleepwalk to victory; they need to think long and hard about that strategy because right now it looks like removing Ardern has put Labour back in the game.

I don’t think the same strategy that got them across the line with John Key is going to work for Christopher Luxon. If you offer people pretty much the same as Labour, there is no compelling reason to change when you can keep Labour.

Voters are fickle and you can be assured that Labour will use the Treasury benches and all the power that confers for a very large and expensive lolly scramble in the hope voters will forgive them. It might just work, you know.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...