Some years back, a writer calling himself only “Planning Engineer” began writing for Judith Curry’s Climate Etc blog. Articles such as “Myths and realities of renewable energy” stand as stark, Cassandra-like warnings of the energy crisis we currently find ourselves mired in.
When these resources only make up a small percentage of the generation on the system, it is not a big deal. The system is strong enough that utilities are ok with letting a small percentage of solar lean on the system. But as the penetration of solar and wind energy increases the system robustness will degrade and reliability will be compromised without costly improvements.
Fast forward to 2022, and countries from Germany and Britain, to Australia and New Zealand, are learning exactly what system robustness will degrade and reliability will be compromised really means in practice.
Here’s a question, though: why does “Planning Engineer” write under a pseudonym?
A colleague recently asked me why more engineers don’t speak up about the risks and challenges of the faith-based transition away from fossil fuels. I’ve noticed this gap myself – a void in place of noisy debates between the likes of engineers, economists, traders and developers.
When was the last time you saw an objective opinion allowed on Q&A or Insiders, or a professional engineer (not an academic) on mainstream media?
Unlike many journalists, I suspect, I’ve occasionally operated within the scientific community. I’ve sat in seminars and lunchrooms, and talked to scientists. In recent years, a pall of silence and groupthink has descended on the scientific community.
When they’re not actually rabid activists, scientists know very well to keep their mouths shut. Bureaucratic bosses openly tell them not to speak out of turn. More than a few have confessed to me that they don’t dare speak their real views in the workplace, let alone on record in the media, because it would be the end of their careers.
Professionals who are aware of the risks and challenges, but cannot get publicly involved without risking their livelihoods […]
If you are in [this group], ask your colleagues which of them believe we are going down the right track, or if they think we might end up like Venezuela.
Then there are those who:
Are well aware of the issues, but deliberately obfuscate and mislead the public in order to push an agenda […]
If you are in [this group] you will disagree with me on almost every level. That is okay. I wish you well in life, but I urge you to speak the truth (or at least don’t lie).
Then there are those of us who are not experts, but are either ‘adjacent’, or have at least a decent education and a reasonable grasp of the issues.
Please start asking questions. Think about what your comfortable middle-class lives will look like with rationed power, and when your electricity bill triples to $5,000 per year. If that sounds ridiculous, consider the UK where the average energy bill is nearly £2,000 (AUD$3,500) and rising. On top of rising interest rates and inflation, the energy cost will hit you hard. Solar won’t help much when the regulators cut feed-in-tariffs and add a network connection charge […]
Do you think a career union official, elected and installed as an energy minister, is more qualified than you to make policy decisions that make and break complex infrastructure? No chance.
Until you’ve been blacked out for hours, if not days, you probably don’t even think how much nearly everything in a modern lifestyle is utterly underpinned by electricity. So, why are we allowing ourselves to be marched into an electricity-deprived world?
It’s long past time to start demanding answers from the Climate Cultists.
When you hear about a renewable energy target, ask if it’s nameplate capacity (megawatts MW) or output (megawatt-hours MWh). When you hear that billions of dollars are to be spent on new transmission, ask why and where. Find out where the money comes from; understand the components of your electricity bill and how the wholesale market works. Who sets the wholesale price, and when? How does that affect you? What is a renewable energy target and where does the money go?
You do not need to be an engineer or an economist to take on these questions.
But you do need to be discerning and diligent.
Do not believe the first answer you come across. The truth is buried under years of activism. Dig further. Find supporting information. Sometimes the answer will use industry data. When that looks good, ask yourself if anything has been excluded and if the time-frame is reasonable. Sometimes the answer will be based on modelling. Find the assumptions in that modelling and challenge yourself to locate the fundamentals.
Spectator Australia
When you do, you’ll find that the dogmas of the Climate Cult vanish like a puff of invisible, odourless and tasteless gas.