It’s all about the second sheep.
As a kid, I loved watching The Dog Show. I loved the skill and power of the dog and farmer to control the sheep and, ultimately, get them in the pen.
But every so often the sheep can defeat the dog despite its predatory attitude and sharp teeth. I saw this a year or so ago at the local A&P Show. One sheep was able to lead the other two to resist the dog and ultimately win by running out the clock.
This success has lessons for the protest in Wellington. A poll released today shows that roughly one-third of kiwis support the protestors while two-thirds do not. A similar situation to those sheep at the show. One of the three stubbornly refused to go into the pen. The other two went in. They were afraid of the dog, but the farmer could not close the gate until all three sheep were in the pen. Now one of the sheep in the pen wanted to stay in the pen but one was (excuse the pun) on the fence. She was wavering between being afraid of the dog and joining her fellow outside of the pen.
And this was the battle that went on for excruciating minutes. Would the second sheep overcome her fears and join the leader? Or would she give in to fear and stay in the pen? If she came out, she would force the one already in the pen to come out too; sheep stick together. But if she gave into fear and went into the pen then the dog and farmer could gang up on the leader and force her into the pen.
That is why the aim of the Wellington protest should be to appeal to the second sheep. Does the second sheep identify with the sheep outside the pen or the one inside? An important part of why the leader sheep was able to lead her sister out was that she was able to demonstrate that the dog made empty threats. The leader made several breaks for freedom and although each time the dog brought her back to the pen, she refused to go in.
The protesters have so far made an excellent job of appealing to the second sheep. They have shown up the empty threats of the government and police. They should hold the line. Show that the dog cannot force them into the pen. By remaining peaceful and resolute, they will show the second sheep that true safety is with them not in the pen.
The protesters should not give in to appeals from the opposition to clear out and then they will talk because the aim of the protest is not to get politicians to talk (after all they are with the farmer) but to persuade the second sheep. Once the second sheep is with us then the political result will follow.