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Today is a FREE taste of an Insight Politics article by writer Stephen Berry
Ladies and Gentlemen….a Trend
Last week a Roy Morgan poll combined with some missteps by Jacinda Ardern and her government, made some centre-right hearts skip a beat, though I still poured lukewarm water on those hopes. It was one bad week for Labour; one bad but notoriously erratic poll and much of the population remaining in lockdown: a traditionally popular move for the Government. Today, I believe we may be sitting on the beginning of a trend that threatens Labour’s hopes of a third term.
Labour needed a good Monday morning to halt the negative narrative of the previous week during which Ardern closed down a press conference in response to one difficult question and ministers repeatedly contradicted each other on the details of plans to open up the Auckland Level 3.2 border. Instead, the week started with the hangover of a mundane party conference that raised more questions about the longevity of Ardern’s prime ministership and injected zero excitement into her support base.
The Labour conference announced that a slew of benefits would go up about $5 a week each in April 2022, in addition to inflation. That is nothing for those who are employed but childless, crumbs for those unemployed and childless and nothing for anyone unable to work due to their employer being locked down. The recipients must also wait six months for the $5 + inflation top-up, with inflation sitting at 4.9% in the June to September quarter; that reduces every benefit by $5 for every $100 in real terms until April 2022.
The other event of note in the weekend’s conference was a change to the rules for electing the next leader of Labour, whenever that may occur. Previously the leadership was campaigned for publicly, with the caucus, membership and affiliated unions each having a part to play. The caucus constitutes 40% of this vote, membership 40% and affiliated unions 20%. In the previous leadership elections under this system, David Cunliffe won in 2014 and Andrew Little won in 2015 though neither won the support of the caucus. Jacinda Ardern was elected unopposed in 2017 as the leadership vacancy occurred within 3 months of election day. The new system for electing the Labour leader retains the 40-40-20 system; however, the caucus gets an opportunity to fill the vacancy first, if it can elect a new leader with a two-thirds majority within a week.
This week:
- Labour has been criticised by the Greens, their closest friends in Parliament, for the size of the benefit increases announced by Ardern.
- Act revealed that taxpayer funded research may also be a resource for Jacinda Ardern’s Facebook page and laid a complaint with the Attorney General.
- Allowing outdoor hospitality in Auckland, to provide the sector some economic relief, was ruled out.
- Ardern’s first visit to Auckland since the lockdown began three months ago was a stage-managed flop. She visited one factory that had remained open throughout the lockdown and another unnamed business that hasn’t, before returning to Wellington.
- On Tuesday, the largest anti-government protest about Covid restrictions since the pandemic began took place outside Parliament with attendees numbering several thousand. That’s more than the 250 that prevented Ardern visiting a vaccination clinic in Whangarei last week, the 2,000 at Auckland Domain on two separate weekends prior and the handful in Auckland at the start of the Level 4 lockdown in August.
Finally, two new polls were published on Thursday which reinforce the momentum of events over the previous few weeks. Both reinforce the downward trend in support for Labour implied by the Roy Morgan poll released on 2 November.
Roy Morgan
| September | October | November | |
| Labour | 39.5 | 45.5 | 39.5 |
| National | 25 | 23 | 26 |
| Act | 13 | 16 | 16 |
| Greens | 13 | 9.5 | 10.5 |
| Maori | 2.5 | 2 | 2 |
| New Zealand First | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| TOP | 2 | 1.5 | 1 |
Talbot Mills (formerly UMR)
| August | October | November | |
| Labour | 43 | 46 | 41 |
| National | 28 | 22 | 24 |
| Act | 13 | 16 | 17 |
| Greens | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| Maori | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| New Zealand First | 4.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| TOP | 2 |
Curia (Taxpayers’ Union)
| September | October | November | |
| Labour | 45.8 | 44.8 | 39.3 |
| National | 21.3 | 22.5 | 26.2 |
| Act | 14.9 | 16.6 | 15.9 |
| Greens | 9.6 | 6.4 | 8.6 |
| Maori | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| New Zealand First | 2.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
My previous poll of polls included a Colmar Brunton from September 27, Roy Morgan October 4, Talbot Mills 14 October, Curia 14 October and Roy Morgan November 2. This new poll of polls shows the Parliamentary left-wing parties (Labour/Greens/Maori) collectively losing 1.6% support while the Parliamentary right-wing parties (National/Act) have gained 0.8% support, and the gap between the sides narrowing to 11.6% from 14%.
I’m still cautious about predicting the demise of the Labour government in 2023, though caution feels a hell of a lot better than no hope at all. The entire year until now has felt completely hopeless. Two-term governments are extremely unusual in New Zealand; the last one was voted out in 1990. However, single party majority governments are unheard of under MMP either in New Zealand or Germany, yet Labour pulled it off in 2020.
There is still plenty of time for the Covid effect to influence the next election in two years’ time. While it is possible that lockdowns that favour incumbent governments may be leading to frustration and decreased support, there have been no second elections held worldwide and therefore there is no data available to indicate whether the eventual lifting of post-Delta lockdowns results in resentment or gratitude at the ballot box.
However, ladies and gentlemen, we have a favourable trend and that’s the best thing New Zealanders have seen in four long years.
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