The Press Gallery’s resident granny, Audrey Young, has written a very good piece in the NZ Herald, that was let down by her sub-editor’s headline which doesn’t remotely reflect what is contained in the article:
The fact that Judith Collins, who has been such a polarising figure throughout her political career, turned out to be the unity candidate, is ironic.
The fact that today she is emphasising the support of the electorates is also probably wise.
She has always been a darling of the party. Not all MPs are but Collins enjoyed party work such as regional conferences and has always been in demand on the party circuit.
Without having a large coterie of acolytes in the caucus, it makes sense to harness that grassroots support to cement her leadership.
In a party that was forged on a coalition of farmers and their rural conservativism with business and their urban liberalism, Collins has a certain cross-appeal within the party.
NZ Herald
The media for far too long have regurgitated the poison about Judith Collins dripped into their ears by lesser men and jealous female caucus members. Audrey Young has largely resisted repeating that poison and instead deals with facts.
Her die-hard loyalists these days are deputy leader Shane Reti, who replaced Gerry Brownlee as Collins’ preferred deputy after the election, Shadow Treasurer Andrew Bayly, Agriculture spokesman David Bennett, whip Maureen Pugh, Corrections spokesman Simeon Brown, and Harete Hipango.
There is not a Machiavelli among them. They are the strays, misfits and the “uncool” MPs, sometimes picked on by others, whom she has befriended over the years.
Most importantly, those MPs have one quality that is in short supply in politics, and that is loyalty. The rest of the caucus needs to discover that quality, or leave, as there is no place in National for disloyal ratbags. Toadies and sycophants can also disappear after long being rewarded under John Key, then Bill English and finally Simon Bridges.
Factions in National – and Labour – tend to emerge under the pressure of Opposition and these days they are hardly ever about policy or ideology but about polls, popularity and which leader could help advance the individual MP and the party.
That is a lamentable fact, according to National Party veteran Maurice Williamson, a former colleague of Collins and like her, an occasional maverick.
He clashed with Sir Robert Muldoon on ideological grounds at his first caucus meeting in 1987 when the new MP suggested Roger Douglas’ reforms were terrific. Muldoon suggested he go and join his “leftie” mates down the corridor.
Williamson says National and Labour have coalesced around the centre under MMP and are scared to alienate the slightly off-centre.
“You are wasting your time if you think you can get big ideological debates up and running because it is very heavily driven by polling.
“When I joined the National Party and went to meetings, the differences were stark.”
Then Muldoon started running left-wing policies of state control and Roger Douglas adopted right-wing policies and reducing the state.
“By the end of those two lots of government, the public was so bloody confused as to even where the divide was, it was one of the major things that drove MMP.
“There’s no philosophical driver any more. It’s to do with who is popular and who is nice, who says the right thing at the right time, or who doesn’t offend somebody.”
I always laugh when journalists talk about factions inside National. There almost never are any factions like the media love to portray them. That isn’t true of Labour, however, which is highly factionalised. There was the wet wing of the caucus in National, but they have largely drowned themselves in their own puddle.
Maurice Williamson is right though: Labour and National are two sides of the same coin, basically coalescing in the middle. However, under Jacinda Ardern, Labour has lurched philosophically hard left and so there is a gap emerging near the centre.
Were Collins to fall under a bus tomorrow, former leader Bridges would probably be best placed to take over, and if it were closer to the election, the former Air NZ CEO Christopher Luxon could be in the running – although it is more than likely his mentor Sir John Key has counselled against any move this term.
Mark Mitchell is not considered a viable option. Nicola Willis and Chris Bishop, the Grant and Jacinda of the National Party, are the next generation’s leaders, not current options.
Everybody has now learned their lines properly: they totally support Collins and she will be the next Prime Minister. Bridges has desisted from giving smart-alec half answers.
That is due to Judith Collins staring down and emasculating Todd Muller, and acting and looking steely under pressure. Caucus is now unified and there is no Bridges faction, and the more Christopher Luxon talks to people the fewer people like him. His failing is of course thinking that the silence greeting him is a licence to keep on talking. He has literally grabbed the FIGJAM mantle inside National and is off running with it.
Muller’s mistake was not only to have talked in disparaging terms to Newsroom about the returning list MP Harete Hipango, as Herald political editor Claire Trevett revealed. It was to have made his comments while in a car with former whip Barbara Kuriger.
Collins was on the warpath over the piece, which appeared on June 16. The next ordinary caucus meeting was June 22, the day Hipango was sworn in, and Collins read the riot act.
After Kuriger came forward to the leadership, Shane Reti confronted Muller and after admitting to the Hipango hit job, an extraordinary caucus meeting was called for later that night.
Muller was confronted by his colleagues (some of whom had also been anonymously quoted in the Newsroom story).
But what made matters worse for Muller was that he admitted to the caucus to having been a source for the Politik newsletter, run by veteran journalist Richard Harman, for about five years.
It has famously had good detail about the inner workings and debates in the National Party including from caucus. Harman has a wide range of National Party contacts and assiduously covers many National events, including regional conferences and Blue Greens conferences that most media don’t.
Muller insisted he hadn’t leaked but rather briefed the media, but no matter what it was called, Muller’s admissions sealed his fate.
He was given an ultimatum to either announce his retirement with dignity or to be suspended. The next day he announced his retirement – although not effective until the next election – and went on five weeks’ leave.
Todd Muller proved to be weak and vacillating but more importantly he was shown up as being desperately stupid. How he ever thought his poisoned whispering into Newsroom’s ear would never get rumbled is beyond me, especially as he did it in front of people loyal to Collins. It was his admission that he was Richard Harman’s snitch and bitch that probably ended his career.
Muller hasn’t learned though, and he’s landed other MPs in trouble by continuing to leak to media despite being on gardening leave. By the time he returns he will be totally PNG and find himself cutting a forlorn and lonely track down the back of nowhere. He is now the political equivalent of cancer and no one wants the stink of that clinging to them.
Collins had supported Muller but now sounds very unforgiving when comparing his famous indecision to herself.
“In terms of my leadership of bringing together what was a very challenging situation, actually just having the spine to get up every day and do that when others falter in something to be proud of.
“And the fact is I can make decisions. I’m not someone who can’t make decisions. I understand there are always effects of that. Sometimes those effects are negative but I’d rather do that than not make a decision.”
Any support Muller had evaporated when he tried to stare Collins down and failed. All he will get now is a firm boot applied to his posterior to ease him out the door.
There are no apparent factions working against Collins at present although that is not to say there is unanimous belief that she will last the term.
The large group who once backed Bridges either abandoned him for Muller, have been promoted by Collins or were dumped by the voters. Todd McClay, Michael Woodhouse and Paul Goldsmith were the closest to him but they appear to be knuckling down in their new jobs.
Finally, we get to the nub of the article, that there are no factions, nor support for any pretenders. Judith Collins, by being strong, and vigilant, has united the caucus, even if it took a little bit of fear to be instilled in some of the quivering MPs.
From the moment the last election was over, there has been an “accepted wisdom” that Judith Collins could not lead National into the next election and that the knives will be out again this term. That is not necessarily certain or wise.
Williamson says the attitude of the caucus, however, should be to make the best of what has been delivered by the voters.
“The team just really needs to say ‘this is what we are, we can’t change it until the next election, we’ve knuckled down as a team, we’ve got to start to like each other and stop the hatred and the bitterness … and just get on and work together.
“I don’t see another leader taking over. I think Judith will lead them into the next election but others have to recognise that.”
Yes, they do…or leave.
Please share this article so that others can discover The BFD