20th April 2021
The abductions continue.
Daw Nway Nway Hlaing was abducted from Hpa-An in Karen state today.
And still it continues.
Shunlei May Shwe a 22-year-old student at Hmawbi Technological University was abducted by the Junta’s security forces.
It is thought that the Junta has started their system of neighbourhood informers again and they are using them to seek out CDM members. Of course, they also take the opportunity to pay back old scores or settle disputes. This is a deliberate ploy to sow discord and make transmission of information hazardous.
The preparations are underway for the summit in Jakarta on Saturday. What is becoming clear is that China and ASEAN are against inappropriate UN involvement which will isolate and humiliate the Junta with the foreseeable consequence that the latter locks itself in a non-negotiable entrenched position. What ASEAN is aiming for is for the Junta to step down in dignity and agree to peacefully share the power with Aung San Suu Kyi.
One thing is certain, the military can’t be done away with. Without the military a full scale permanent civil war is inevitable. Even with Aung San Suu Kyi in power, she had to share the power with the military which has been running the country for decades, its power base maintaining the nation’s stability.
There are 135 ethnicities in Myanmar, many having their own military forces, living as separate communities, many inhabiting isolated mountains particularly conducive to guerrilla wars. Many regions in Myanmar today are still not under the effective control of the government.
Myanmar needs a strongman/woman to unite and run the country. Aung San’s party National League for Democracy is composed of idealists who don’t have much experience to govern a complex nation. Before Aung San came to power, she was vocally anti-China. The West wanted to put her in power precisely because of her anti-China position. The pro-China Military must give way to democracy (meaning anti-China). But lo and behold, when Aung San took power, she turned and was more pro-China than the military! Thanks to her, the cooperation between China and Myanmar achieved a new level.
Aung San achieved annual economic growth of around 5-6% for Myanmar. She should have just kept the status quo and focused on economic development. Instead, she got impatient and called for the amendment of the constitution written by the military which grants itself a huge fixed power share. 1/4 seats of the parliament are reserved for the military. The Constitution also grants the military the right to take power if it deems the nation under threat. This clause pretty much legalizes the military coup in the eyes of the military. (Almost, but not quite as the NLD was elected democratically under the constitution!).
Note that the leader of the military Min Aung Hlaing is an old man, due to retire this year. Knowing the level of corruption of the military, the loss of power would mean prison for himself and his family. Time is running out. The coup was a daredevil move of a cornered animal. He calculated that his coup wouldn’t arouse opposition from the West now that Aung San, the perceived “Chinese puppet” is out of Western favour after her defence of the Military during the Rohingya crisis. All he has done is managed to create a no-win, no-lose situation. So, all eyes are on the conference on Saturday.
If the conference is a failure, and it may be viewed as that as it is guaranteed that they will go away and consider the situation further with a view to reporting back, then there is talk of the military option. That is where New Zealand could get dragged in or be exposed as isolated from its traditional allies as it pursues a policy of non-alignment in foreign affairs. The 5 Eyes members and the Quad members are getting thoroughly disenchanted with New Zealand’s foreign policy. China has successfully split up one of the Western alliances.
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