4 February 2021
The South China Morning Post carried an opinion piece on China’s relations with the world. The SCMP is owned by Alibaba, Jack Ma’s company, and should be read with that perspective in mind.
Last week, the small nation of New Zealand managed to cut a fresh trade deal with China, expanding the breadth of its more than decade-old free-trade agreement and reducing tariffs on nearly all of its exports to China to zero.
Some have even argued that New Zealand could use its friendly relations with Beijing to serve as a mediator to help ease tensions between China and the other four other members of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing coalition – the US, Australia, Canada and Britain. Others warn that such an effort would be fraught with difficulty, given the entrenched positions of all parties, and could easily backfire on Wellington.
“As the only Five Eyes member largely free of conflict with China, New Zealand appears to be in a favourable position to act as an ‘honest broker’”, said Tan See Seng, a professor of international relations in the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University.
Careful Jacinda, don’t let your delusions of being a world leader let you get carried away.
“The question (of New Zealand’s position as a broker) is very much in line with Wellington’s recent offer to be the middle person for nuclear disarmament, in view of (US President Joe) Biden’s purported interest to that end”, Tan noted.
“(New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda) Ardern’s tack toward Beijing as part of New Zealand’s ‘country-agnostic’ approach – although Wellington banned Huawei Technologies’ involvement in its 5G networks – highlights New Zealand’s different stance (towards China), relative to Australia’s.
“So, yes, New Zealand seems well placed to play an honest-broker role between the major powers in select issue areas, and trade and climate change are likely the appropriate ones, given Wellington’s obvious strengths in those.”
Divide and conquer tactics are coming in to play, feeding on Jacinda Ardern’s desire to be a world leader.
“As an original member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) that evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, New Zealand could also help China with its membership aspirations. And Ardern’s global standing helps”, Tan added. “Despite New Zealand joining the international call for an independent inquiry into Covid, and backing Taiwan’s bid for a [World Health Organization] observer seat, Ardern apparently waited until many others supported an inquiry first, before backing it,” he said.
Ah, it’s all becoming clear now.
Stephen Jacobi, former executive director of the New Zealand China Council and founder of the New Zealand International Business Forum, put it simply: “We need to manage our relations with larger parties very carefully.”
“I don’t think New Zealand is in a position to mediate in any way between China and other Five Eyes partners, at least not in a formal way”, he said. “New Zealand is, of course, hosting the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum this year, and that might provide opportunities for dialogue.
“But New Zealand is a small country with its own interests to advance and protect.”
The perils of being a broker were laid bare on Thursday when New Zealand’s trade minister, Damien O’Connor, suggested that Australia show China respect and act with more diplomacy, ruffling feathers in Canberra.
In a phone call afterward with his Australian counterpart, Dan Tehan, O’Connor said the “Australia-China relationship would always be a matter for China and Australia”.
“New Zealand has an independent foreign policy, which allows us to maintain both our closest partnership with Australia and a mature relationship with China”, O’Connor said.
Grant Duncan, a specialist in political theory and public policy from New Zealand’s Massey University, said O’Connor’s public comments to Australia were likely unnecessary, especially since New Zealand likes to view itself as an honest broker in the region.
“If China casts New Zealand as the good partner to cast shame onto Australia, then that’s divisive, and not helpful”, he said.
The famous phrase “useful idiots” comes to mind.
“But this was where things could get tricky for New Zealand, or any other country in a similar situation, as it could result in its position in the Five Eyes alliance and with China altered”, said Wang Gungwu, a long-respected historian on Sino-Southeast Asian relations.
“New Zealand’s good intentions would be appreciated to begin with, but when it comes down to it, I am not sure it would make any difference to the confrontational approach that has dogged us for too long”, he said. “The weak link is that it is one of the Five Eyes and may not be seen as really neutral.”
So why bother getting involved and jeopardise long standing alliances?
The hard-nosed approach, now well in motion, means New Zealand, despite its credentials, would be best advised to steer clear of being a conflict intermediary, said Huang Kwei-Bo, an associate professor of diplomacy at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, who has analysed third-party mediations, including the Wang-Koo talks that Singapore helped with.
It would be better, Huang said, for New Zealand to take the more subtle approach of showing by example the benefits of a good relationship with China, such as the increasing of people-to-people exchanges and of skilled Chinese migration.
“It just needs to demonstrate the mutual benefit resulting from its effort”, he said.
Really? That would not be a good idea at the moment. A good back door into Australia, again!
It is an interesting article that reveals that New Zealand is swimming in dangerous waters, jeopardising current alliances and letting China drive a wedge through the South Pacific.
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