Myanmar in Trouble

Below is part of a piece that I wrote for The BFD on 13 November last year following on from the Myanmar election.

“Despite its deep flaws, we’re approaching an election that will in all likelihood deliver a government with a strong popular mandate – something that would be difficult to say about neighbouring countries like Thailand or Cambodia, let alone Vietnam and Laos, one-party states that are nonetheless embraced by many Western democracies. The international community will be obliged to recognize the result of this weekend’s election, and the majority in Myanmar will be happy, having elected a government of their choosing. The unrepresented minority, meanwhile, will be ignored.

All in all, an interesting election and one that has implications for the West in its relationships with China. There is a battle for influence going on in Myanmar between the West and China, with matters such as access to Indian Ocean ports and infrastructure development at stake. Myanmar is suspicious of belt and road initiatives but needs Western support to counter this. India is putting its weight behind Myanmar as it counters China’s influence in the region. The USA and Australia are very supportive (although guarded in their public statements) with New Zealand tagging along. The UK is bogged down in civil society issues and is getting left behind in the chase to have an impact in education, finance and development of the industrial and commercial base of the country.

Well, it has all come to pass with today’s coup in Myanmar. It will hit the country’s economy and on top of the economic damage from COVID-19 the country is heading for dire straits. The election, which was given an international clean bill of health, caused problems for the military because they couldn’t understand why electorates with a majority of the military as voters voted for the candidates of the NLD (Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s party). The unpalatable answer was that they had seen solid benefits from the 5 years of NLD government and had seen the change in Yangon as modernisation made its impact. They had more choice, better shops, nice restaurants, all things which made a positive impact on their families. The country is sick of the military, even though it has traditionally been held in high regard (mingled with fear).  

The military have moved quickly, replacing many ministers in the elected government. They have also pushed police, troops and covert agents into flashpoints in Yangon, such as the junction of Maha Bandula Park, Sule Pagoda and City Hall, the scene of previous massacres. (pictured below).

Also under close surveillance is University Avenue Road, the site of the USA Embassy and close by Aung San Suu Kyi’s house.  Just a little further along the road is Yangon University. There is an anger bubbling away, which is different from the preamble to previous uprisings. Then the people had little to lose; now they have experienced a rising living standard and don’t want to lose it. The dissatisfaction is not just confined to students but is widespread. Even Buddhist monks have been heard muttering dissent.

The Chinese on the other hand have been exploiting the situation and will step in to cover any sanctions that the West may impose. India wants to keep China away from Myanmar and it will be interesting to see Biden’s response as he will be under pressure from Modi in India. The Chinese are after a port on the Indian ocean to avoid the Malacca Straits choke point and have been discussing this with the military as well as the government.

At a more mundane level, there are huge queues forming at ATMs, already some goods are in short supply and shops and restaurants are closing. Internet service is intermittent but not wholly closed down and mobile phone service is restricted. There was much traffic on social media and the internet with protest actions being co-ordinated.

Given the heavy handed, thuggish behaviour of the military, this will not end well.

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