13th November 2020
Well, it had to happen. Today saw the departure of Lee Cain, Director of Communications at 10 Downing Street. He made the mistake of getting offside with Carrie Symonds (Johnson’s partner) and her coterie of women pals at Downing Street. Ably assisted by the PM’s new official spokesperson Allegra Stratton and the director of policy Munira Murza, Carrie Symonds put the heavy word on Boris Johnson as to the suitability of Lee Cain for the job of Head of Staff. This was to compensate Cain for being moved on from communications to allow the appointment of Stratton.
Unfortunately for Cain, he is the Siamese twin of Dominic Cummings and between them they had major influence over Johnson. There is history between Cummings and Symonds as they have clashed in the past. Like most of the population Symonds has an intense dislike of Cummings. (In 2014 the then prime minister, David Cameron, referred to Cummings as a career psychopath). So, in an act of support, Cummings resigned and will leave his post before Christmas. (Resigned or booted out? My money is on being given the big heave-ho). (Update – he has just been booted out with immediate effect). Also lurking in the background was Priti Patel who has clashed with Cummings previously. It is thought that she was quietly beavering away in the background. There is an ugly rumour that Cummings was the one who leaked the information about the recent lockdown or is that the leaker taking advantage of the situation to cover up his/her involvement?
This is not without major political implications as it will dramatically weaken the position of Leavers in the management group of advisors. It is heavily rumoured that the Brexit Negotiator, Lord Frost, threatened to resign as this was viewed as undermining the support for his position, but apparently he received suitable assurances from Johnson. This will allow a more consensus-driven approach, even collegiate, with more focus on green issues, a hobby horse of, yes, you’ve guessed it, the fragrant Ms Symonds. It is felt that the Conservatives will now adopt a gentler, kinder form of politics with an emphasis on green issues. Now, where have I heard that before?
It is thought that this emergence of Symonds has been the reason for so many policy flip-flops and reversals over the past few months. Johnson would agree a course of action and at the end of the day retire to the flat in Downing street. The following morning, he would appear in the office and announce that he had reversed the decision.
For followers of these letters these developments should come as no surprise as they have been predicted for months.
As to the future? If Covid vaccinations and the lockdowns don’t work (or as is more likely, the implementation is screwed up) then Johnson will be gone by Easter. This will be no surprise as he has been looking haggard, drawn, and lacking vigour. His heart just isn’t in it anymore. The EU will search for a lack of resolution in the last-minute negotiations given the balance of power change in Downing Street.
In further developments, there are whispers it could trigger a cabinet reshuffle in the New Year, as the removal of Cummings clears the way for the return of Sajid Javid the former Chancellor who would relish a return to a senior role. The inside trade on this is that Javid could return as Chancellor, with Rishi Sunak moving up to Prime Minister. This would solve a number of problems and there are plenty of knives out there (and they are long knives) to ensure that it happens. As I keep saying, Johnson has lost the North and there is a cohort of new MPs from there that are getting twitchy about their seats.
It looks as though Johnson has been suffering from Stockholm syndrome, trapped but unwilling to fight back against his captors. Now he has just exchanged one hostage holder for another.
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