In the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson won a substantial majority at the last election largely on the back of voters from the north of England who wanted Brexit. They were mainly concerned about jobs. Some electorates turned from red to blue for the first time in their history. Boris now has the job, amidst the Covid crisis, of keeping those electorates blue. He must inject financial help into those areas to create jobs. At the same time, he has to pour money into the health crisis.
Here at home, after last weekend’s election, Ardern has also inherited a large number of new voters. She says one of her priorities is to hold onto them. While both Johnson and Ardern will have similar goals in regard to holding onto new gains, both have problems in doing so. Boris, as mentioned above, has Covid and, dare I mention it, Ardern has her paymasters: the unions.
Labour says that behind the selfies and crowd gatherings they plotted a campaign with depth. Really? I’m terribly sorry, I hadn’t noticed. According to campaign manager Megan Woods, there was more than just hand shaking this election. She says half of the 20,000 who donated online did so for the first time. Yes, and after three years it will probably prove to be the last. Ilam’s new MP Sarah Pallett says “People are ready to support Labour’s mandate and appreciate the work done of the last three years”.
Most people would like to be enlightened as to what the mandate was or is. Was it just a Covid mandate? Sarah might like to look at the graphs illustrating the work done by Labour in the last three years. She might be disappointed at the direction the arrows are pointing. Duncan Webb says one of his top priorities is to engage with the east side of central Christchurch. “We know that the east is a really struggling area. The incomes are really low, housing quality is really poor. One of my missions is to go in and engage with that community and work out how we lift it up”. I wonder what he’s been doing for the last three years?
It would appear that Labour has yet to work out that a lot of what they would call the popular vote was not. The reality is many votes were cast strategically, at least in part due to a fear of the Greens forming part of the Government. Farmers voted strategically for this very reason. Hence, a true blue seat like Rangitata went to Labour. Federated Farmers have come out and said they want Labour to govern alone. Farmers would not have voted Labour had National been better positioned.
Ardern has already said she wants to hang on to all these gains. Right there is the challenge for National. They must take back seats like Ilam and Rangitata in 2023 to have any chance of winning. Who Judith appoints as her spokesperson on agriculture will be crucial. Farmers will be looking for a person who understands their concerns and who they can easily relate to.
If Labour really believes their large majority is a vote of confidence in their stewardship of the last three years, they need, and are in for, a huge reality check. My prediction is that they will not achieve much more in their second term than their first. Their goals, as announced by Ardern appear to be the same. So too probably will be the results.
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