Jacinda Ardern dangled the prospect of an Australia-NZ travel bubble “before Christmas” as an apparent pre-election carrot. But two Australian states have gazumped her by already offering quarantine-free travel however Ardern seems rather less-than-eager to reciprocate.

As a result – and no doubt also due to higher fares than previously – New Zealanders seem less than eager to get out and about again.

New Zealanders are not exactly rushing to take up the Australian government’s offer to visit NSW or the Northern Territory following the creation of a trans-Tasman bubble.

Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack announced on Friday the government would allow Kiwis to travel to NSW and the Top End without having to quarantine, with South Australia expected to be added to the bubble shortly.

The same privileges would not be available to Australians wishing to visit New Zealand, however, and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern warned that Kiwis taking up the offer may have to quarantine on return.

Well, that’s the deal-breaker, isn’t it?

A recent health scare for a family member on the Mainland set us pondering the logistics of travelling there from Tassie. We concluded that it was simply infeasible, for the same reason as Kiwis face: having to quarantine in a hotel for 14 days is just too high a barrier, both in time lost and expense.

Qantas responded to the announcement by scheduling six return flights a week between Auckland and Sydney and four a week between Christchurch and Sydney, with Jetstar to operate three flights between Auckland and Sydney from October 16.

One-way fares from Auckland were set at $880, and $875 from Christchurch and $680 and $650 for the return legs respectively.

On Monday, a Qantas spokesman said that “as expected, the majority of fares being purchased were inbound to Australia”.

In other words, Aussies and expats stuck at home in NZ for months are taking the chance to get out of Jacinda-Land while they can, but Kiwis are less-than-eager to take a holiday that’s going to cost them a bomb and two lost weeks.

The bookings were in contrast to those for Qantas’s seven-hour “scenic flight to nowhere” scheduled for this Saturday, which sold out in 10 minutes.

Australians are obviously pretty keen to get travelling again, even if it’s to just look at the country from high altitude. Just so long as they can go straight home again afterwards. Kiwis are understandably less keen to waste two weeks in quarantine and spend a small fortune on a holiday.

But the political reality is that Ardern can’t afford to reciprocate. At least until after the election. She has locked herself into her foolish “elimination” paradigm. Opening NZ’s borders unavoidably carries a heightened risk of new infections. In which case, Ardern’s COVID credibility – which she has made practically her sole election plank – is shot to pieces.

So, sorry, Kiwis – you’re still closed for the holidays.

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Punk rock philosopher. Liberalist contrarian. Grumpy old bastard. I grew up in a generational-Labor-voting family. I kept the faith long after the political left had abandoned it. In the last decade...