Is Jacinda Ardern getting worried about her re-election chances? Labour still comfortably leads the polls but, ominously, that lead has slid by up to ten points in the past few months. Then there’s Ardern’s lacklustre performance at the leaders’ debate.
So, Ardern can’t afford any more bad news – and she needs to start dangling some carrots, like the tantalising prospect of selective “travel bubbles”. Bubbles are her thing, after all.
But, note the timetable:
Travel between New Zealand and some Australian states might be possible before Christmas, NZ Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has said.
So, not until after the election. This is a telling admission. Ardern wants to be seen to be reopening one of New Zealand’s biggest earners, but is terrified of letting in yet more new COVID infections ahead of the election.
A trans-Tasman bubble has been under discussion for some months but hopes that it would be open in time for the September school holidays were dashed by Victoria’s second wave of cases.
However Ms Ardern told NZ radio on Monday morning that she would consider a state by state bubble, using Australia’s ‘hot spot’ approach under which Australians could travel interstate if a region was not deemed a hot spot.
“We did suggest it would be up to them, but if they did move state by state, that might free things up a little sooner,” Ms Ardern said.
Asked if state bubbles could be open before Christmas, Ms Ardern replied: “It is possible, what we’d need to be assured of is when Australia is saying they have a hotspot [in one state] that the border around that hotspot means that people aren’t able to travel into the states where we are engaging with, with trans-Tasman travel.
She added: “We’ve got a strategy of having a Covid-free country, that’s our ongoing goal and way of operating, and other states have actually operated like that too, like Queensland.”
That’s the pointy stick Ardern has sharpened for her own backside. Like many western leaders, Ardern quietly shifted the goalposts from “flatten the curve” (remember her waving around that trite cartoon?) to “elimination”. Except that while the former was achieved long ago, the latter is impossible, even, as it’s proved, in the face of the (supposed) international border closure.
But, having committed herself to “elimination”, every new infection is another chip at Ardern’s credibility. Opening borders to even select Australian states is intrinsically going to raise that risk even higher than the occasional plane load of “Kiwis” being shuttled off to India. True, the actual number of infections is – and will remain – very small, but the perception won’t be.
At the same time, indefinite border closures are very quickly wearing very thin with the New Zealand public.
So, Ardern’s trying to have it both ways.
New Zealand’s deputy prime minister Winston Peters said he was hopeful for the launch of a travel bubble to some Australian states.
“We have never given up hope on the bubble plan. We have worked on it very staunchly for a long time and the real issue is whether or not we can ensure that the protocols work for both countries,” he said on the Today Show.
“It is very important that we get our tourism back on track as fast as we possibly can.”
This is as close as the Ardern government will get to admitting that they have unilaterally smashed one of New Zealand’s biggest export earners. Ardern is waving the border-reopening carrot before the election, while also making sure the inevitable COVID stick won’t happen until after the election.
“New South Wales, and of course you have Tasmania with an excellent record, so has Queensland. But it is over to the authorities to ensure that it happens both ways, otherwise, you will drain us of our wealth with no commensurate repayment on the other way back.”
That last sentence is Peters at his grubbiest. Firstly, the idea that Australia would let New Zealanders in, but not let Australians out is plainly ludicrous. Secondly, if Peters wants to talk about “draining our wealth”, perhaps he might care to address the decades of the grossly one-sided traffic westwards across the Tasman?
The Ardern government squealed enough at having to take back New Zealand’s criminal refuse. They ought to have a long think before babbling about “commensurate repayment” from Australia.
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