Please remember that Jacinda Ardern did not win the last election. She improved on their polling and arguably got a better result than they would have under Little (which is tantamount to the multiple Facebook “thumbs up” for a picture of a cute kitten), but neither she nor Labour won anything. National won 47% of the party vote to Labour’s paltry 35%. National won more seats than Labour. Nearly twice as many in fact.
Those are facts. I repeat: JACINDA ARDERN DID NOT WIN THE LAST ELECTION ANY MORE THAN SHE IS GOING TO WIN THE NEXT ONE!
We would all do well to stop talking in terms of Ardern or Collins “winning” the next election.
New Zealand elections are no longer won or lost. We vote and they negotiate. You can’t call it “winning” or “losing” the election as such. The government is decided (NOT elected) by coalition discussions behind closed doors – but that’s another story for another day.
The selection of Collins and Brownlee is a game changer. They won’t “win” the election but the possibility of a change of government suddenly has become very real. We all know it and Labour, the Greens and NZ First know it too.
Back on May 20, I posted “10 Reasons Why Simon Bridges Polls So Badly”. Little did I know that Bridges would be gone and I’d be comparing the new leader’s attributes within a matter of days. Todd Muller scored slightly better than Simon Bridges in “Has National Leapt From the Frypan Into the Fire?” which published on June 4.
Still just days later and yet another leader. You wouldn’t read about it, but it’s only right, in the interests of fairness, that we submit the new leader to the same evaluation.
Here’s what I said about Bridges and Muller along with my totally unbiased thoughts on Judith Collins:
1. He looks young, barely out of school – the perception of immaturity is high.
Nope, you couldn’t say that about Mr Muller. He is mature and looks it.
Judith Collins is mature both in terms of life and politics and she looks and acts the part.
2. When speaking, he lacks credibility and authority.
Yes, so far this certainly applies (to Muller).
Judith Collins speaks clearly and concisely and gets to the point quickly leaving no room for ambiguity. So far she has shown a perfect balance of fact, humour and powerful communication. She certainly doesn’t lack credibility or authority.
3. His voice is not deep and authoritative – it’s light and he often sounds whiny.
Certainly (Muller) not as light as Simon’s and certainly not whiny, but still not deep and authoritative.
Ms Collins’s voice matches her personality and position (and is not unduly deep thankfully!) nor is she whiny. She is therefore congruent and comes across as well balanced and authoritative.
4. He has poor diction and pronunciation which further reduces the perception of maturity and credibility
No, his diction and pronunciation are passable (Muller).
Not an issue for Ms Collins either.
5. He always looks as though he’s trying way too hard which makes him appear insincere.
Yes, that fits for sure (Muller)
There are few politicians who look as comfortable in front of the media as Judith Collins. She’s natural and relaxed and fronts the questions asked without being afraid to call out inappropriate or stupid questions or suggestions.
6. He is incongruent – body language and vocal tone too often don’t match the words he’s saying.
Partly true (Muller) – arm waving and over-emphasis look unnatural and cause doubt about the messaging.
Not an issue at all for Judith Collins. Congruent, comfortable and convincing.
7. He seldom laughs, smiles or is warm and engaging – when he does laugh it appears forced rather than relaxed and natural.
(Muller) Early days yet but a bit stiff and serious – probably based more on nerves than anything else. He has work to do on this.
Ms Collins has no issue with being herself and is happy to have a laugh at her own expense. She doesn’t take herself too seriously so looks the part and does come across as knowledgeable, engaging, relaxed, comfortable and natural.
8. His political thermometer is confused – the subjects he chooses as issues too often don’t resonate with the electorate.
(Muller) Maybe more a case of not having a political thermometer than a confused one.
There’s no sign of confusion of any kind with Judith Collins. She knows what the electorate wants and isn’t afraid to openly say so. She’s also clear about who she is and what her views are and isn’t afraid to put them “out there” for people to judge for themselves.
9. Even when making a strong point, he delivers it in the same monotone as everything else he says so the point is too often lost. He uses far too many words – the strong elements, when there are any, are lost in the padding.
(Muller) Yes. Not so much a monotone but certainly over speaking and not addressing the issues concisely (why Jack Tame interrupted him so much). Wishy-washy springs to mind.
There’s no question about how incisive and decisive Ms Collins can be. She is emphatic and clear and holds attention easily. She knows how to confine her comments to the subject and just gets there quickly and accurately.
10. He doesn’t accept and deal with personal criticism well. He tries to look strong and decisive. It has the opposite effect.
(Muller) Too early to comment on personal criticism but trying to look strong and decisive is a weakness and he’s certainly getting the opposite effect.
Judith Collins has had more criticism thrown at her than most yet she managed to absorb it, deal with it and keep right on going.
Overall, it has to be said that she’s looking pretty good. At the time I wrote about Todd Muller, I made some other comments which have turned out to be prophetic:
The stakes are far higher for Todd Muller than many people (possibly including himself) actually realised. He has taken on a huge job at probably the most difficult time possible and while many had been pleading for a leadership change for some time, very few saw this one coming.
It would probably be fair to say that once the announcement was made, the electorate at large were reasonably ambivalent and happy to stand back and see what happened. It didn’t take long to start to unravel and the unravelling is continuing.
In the current political environment, the one thing that’s needed is clear and decisive leadership. Trying to be all things to all people seldom works even at the best of times. When times are tough, you need to choose a path and deliver the plan for taking it, along with the vision of what will happen when we get there.
It seems that Judith Collins has been doing exactly that this past week. And it’s not because she read my “Politics for Dummies” posts here. It’s because she is intelligent, educated, informed and has a feel for the people of the electorate: people like us.
She presents as real, reachable and down to earth.
She displays all the skills most sensible people would want in a leader.
The selection of Judith Collins last week was inevitable. It speaks volumes for her gritty character that she was willing to accept the job at such a critical time.
Make no mistake about it, this is a complete game changer. No hope National has suddenly become every chance National.
For the record: I’ve never met Judith Collins, Todd Muller or Simon Bridges and nobody is being paid for these views!
They are purely my own opinions based on observation.
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