So here we are. Alert level one. New Zealand has officially eliminated the deadly COVID-19 virus still ravaging much of the world. The media is gushing with stories of domestic and international praise of our Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern. A quick glance at Facebook this morning revealed at least three friends have made the same post along the lines of “I’m posting this so that it shows up on future days, New Zealand Covid-19 cases: 0 etc.”. Even my more conservative friends are saying things along the lines of “I don’t like some of Labour’s policies but hasn’t Jacinda done a fantastic job?”. Opinion polls indicate Labour will win the upcoming election by a landslide. So, what do I have to complain about? As it turns out plenty.
On the 26th of March, New Zealand entered alert level 4, best described as an illegal, enforced house arrest of five million people. That same day, Jacinda told us that the latest modelling indicated that without the lockdown 80,000 Kiwis would die because of COVID-19. A terrifying prospect indeed. However, it was also complete rubbish.
The 80,000 deaths were based on the modelling of Professor Neil Ferguson, a man no stranger to disastrous modelling predictions. In 2005 he predicted up to 150 million people would die worldwide from bird flu (actual deaths were 282). In 2009 he predicted 65,000 UK deaths from swine flu (actual deaths 457). Some may argue that we have not seen tens of thousands of deaths because of the lockdown. By that thinking, Sweden with a population more than double ours and minimal restrictions should be approaching 160,000 deaths. However, they are still below 5,000. Belarus, who have implemented no measures, should be approaching 150,000 — they have had 288. Our best comparison, Australia, allowed businesses to remain open and health-wise have fared no worse than us.
Plenty of other epidemiologists provided much more conservative rates. However, the reason our government went with this doomsday scenario is obvious; to create fear. Once fear is instilled in people, they will obey authority. If the truth had been told that a virus was on its way that might kill a few hundred or at worst a few thousand would we have reacted the same way? Would we have just gone about our business whilst taking reasonable precautions? Instead we willingly stayed home, snitched on our neighbours, watched idly by as small businesses died and jobs were lost. To say nothing of the generational impacts of $200 billion-dollar national debt, and the flow on effects of poverty, domestic violence, and mental illness.
The plan was played out to perfection. 1pm conferences featuring Jacinda and the supposed expertise of Dr Ashley Bloomfield saw many of us tune in daily in full trust that they had our best interests at heart. Jacinda told us to be kind whilst her government denied 18 of 18 compassionate requests from people arriving in the country to see dying relatives. Throw in a $50 million bailout of an already left-leaning media and the gagging of her own dim-witted ministers, and it’s little wonder most of us have believed the lie hook, line and sinker.
A repeated theme was Jacinda’s insistence that we eliminated the virus because we ‘went hard and early’. To be fair this is half true. We went hard but not early. New Zealand was in the enviable position of watching everyone else from one of the most isolated places on the planet. If we had gone early and closed our borders there would have been no need for a lockdown. Jacinda understands if you keep repeating a lie often enough people will come to believe it. The truth is the lockdown will have saved some lives. However, the simplistic view that the severity of government restrictions is the main determinant of lower death rates is not true. The best predictor is low population density for which New Zealand is in an excellent position. Consider other factors like population age, pollution levels and temperature at time of outbreak, and it’s clear New Zealand was never going to be another northern Italy.
Now that the virus has been eliminated, we need to understand what happens next. Reopening borders is key to our economy and even Labour understands this. However, if the virus re-enters from overseas the lockdown will have been in vain. Jacinda has pinned all our hopes on a vaccine becoming available within 18 months. The truth is no one knows how long a vaccine will take. We were supposed to have vaccines for SARS and HIV by now but still we wait. Even if miraculously a vaccine does appear in a short time there will be no guarantee of its safety. You can test a vaccine is safe for short- and medium-term effects in 18 months but it takes years to assess the long-term effects. Any vaccine appearing within the next five years is little short of a nationwide clinical trial.
Of course, I couldn’t end without mentioning the bills Labour has pushed through. Just before the lockdown, whilst we were all distracted, there was the Abortion Legislation Bill, to legalise full term abortions for any reason. Ironically, this bill will almost certainly cause more deaths that COVID-19 ever could. Just after lockdown there was the truly chilling COVID-19 Public Health Response Bill effectively creating a police state. Both these deeply flawed bills were passed under urgency to minimise public awareness. Jacinda knew she could get away with it because she’s already won the public and controls the media.
The situation is a disgrace. I’m not happy and I refuse to accept that the upcoming election is a foregone conclusion. Labour began this term as a typical overpromising, overspending, underachieving left wing government. However, the last few months has seen us accelerate full speed towards Jacinda’s totalitarian nightmare. The damage of another three years is unthinkable. We can’t rely on the mainstream media to hold her to account. We must play our part. Talk to people, share articles like this. Are you with me?
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