Last night the final nails in Simon Bridges’ coffin were hammered in with appalling numbers in the 1News Colmar Brunton poll.
Bear in mind that this is the same poll that everyone was saying was more accurate than Newshub, and is also the same poll that had National and Act being able to form a government in February. The slump is dramatic, and one I was predicting in my podcasts.
Labour: 59% up 18% = 79 seats
National: 29% down 17% = 38 seats
Greens: 4.7%
NZFirst: 3%
Act: 2% = 3 seats
The damage continues in the Preferred Prime Minister ratings.
Jacinda Ardern: 63%
Simon Bridges: 5%
Judith Collins: 3%
Nikki Kaye: 0.4%
Todd Muller 0.2%
Not a good look for the wet pretenders. That they think they are the saviours of the party is just laughable.
And the Favourabiliity rating is dire as well.
Jacinda Ardern: 73% up 43%
Simon Bridges: -40% down 18%
The National caucus have only themselves to blame for this disaster. The writing has been on the wall for months but they sat like possums in the headlights. Now the polls have run them over.
The Wet team aren’t going to save them either. More than half of those voting today for a new leader won’t be there to vote for the next leader in four months’ time. They should think on that.
If Simon Bridges staves off the challenge, like he thinks he will, then the two challengers and their ignorant supporters deserve to be rinsed hard.
If they win they may think that they will escape the blame for a thrashing at the election but they should disabuse themselves of that notion. Firstly, a loss is a loss and National doesn’t like losers continuing to lead them. Secondly, they backed Bridges right up until they launched their raid. They are as responsible as the rest of the dead heads in the caucus who voted like Pavlov’s dogs to retain Bridges. They said nothing when Jami-Lee Ross was rinsed for daring to point out the crappy poll numbers. They are as culpable for National’s position as Simon Bridges.
For their stupidity, most of them will lose their jobs. Maybe the survivors will learn the lesson that hubris and arrogance is an electoral turn off.
I predicted this election would mirror 2002, and I still believe this. Labour won’t be able to sustain that high rating and will slide back under 50%. They will need partners. National is now so far behind that no one will see them as viable, and so voters bailing from Labour because of a tanking economy will look for new homes. Act will appeal to those on the right, but without National, they will be unable to influence policy. That leaves NZ First and giving Winston Peters a stronger hand is better than not voting at all. Some National supporters just won’t vote, just like in 2002.
We will know in a few short hours whether it will be Todd Muller or Simon Bridges seeking to knock off Bill English’s worst result ever.