When you look at the anatomy of a coup, the first things to look for are signs of instability. It starts with minor leaks, then bigger ones, then people put their names to things and the leak turns into a deluge.
National has reached that point. Firstly abysmal poll numbers were leaked, but in the absence of public polls these are ignored by most. The leader usually has a stand backed by his loyal followers and menancing enforcers.
Simon Bridges has lost those enforcers as they are plotting their own leadership bid.
But the coup doesn’t get going until someone, usually with nothing to lose, puts their name to something that make it out into the wild.
That someone is Nick Smith, which isn’t really surprising because he was at the Blue Greens conference in his own electorate earlier in the year where there was open talk of rebellion.
There’s yet more bad news for Simon Bridges and his leadership wobbles.
Newshub has learned that one of his veteran MPs Nick Smith, an MP for 24 years, has written a letter to Bridges and copied in his entire caucus.
The letter expresses disappointment – or as one of his colleagues put it to Newshub, “he’s pretty pissed” – about Bridges setting up a new COVID-19 policy team.
Smith is the chair of National’s general policy committee and in the letter, he basically suggests it’s a double-up on his work and therefore what’s the point of his committee or his role.
When contacted about the letter, Smith wouldn’t discuss any private communications but said there was no offer of resignation. Several other National MPs have also leaked details to Newshub about the letter.
All of this has played out on the eve of a National Party caucus meeting on Tuesday where Bridges’ leadership and some of his COVID-related judgement calls are expected to come up.
This caucus-wide lashing from a senior MP puts Bridges further on the back-foot.
And there it is. The catalyst to now force a spill. The Australians are much more formal in these matters. They have rules to make it happen.
What Nick Smith has done is to force Bridges’ leadership to the fore. If the various factions were smart they’d now get a selection of low-ranking backbench MPs, and a smattering of senior but leaving and therefore nothing to lose MPs, to propose an agenda item for caucus to discuss the leadership. The whips can hardly refuse such an approach, but it tells Bridges he’s done for.
Then they can get on with the horse trading and settle on a leader to take them through to the election.
Fortune favours the brave, not the meek. Time is of the essence, but it is now obvious to all, including Blind Freddy, that Simon Bridges’ time as leader is now finished.