Mark
The question is this: If the lockdown continues, how many more people will die as a result of severe economic collapse rather than from the coronavirus, even if we had not made an attempt to contain it?
I’m not talking about secondary deaths due to poverty-related illnesses or suicide; I’m talking about primary deaths due to starvation.
I am sure Jacinda Ardern will promise that “nobody will be left behind”. The problem is: will that be within her control, or will the money needed to “not leave people behind” simply not be there?
If history bears this out, and it seems to every time, once the economy collapses badly, the tax take goes down and the welfare bill goes up. There comes a point when the maths goes negative. Previous governments have tried three things:
- Cut spending
- Borrow money
- Print money.
None of these create jobs required for sustainability.
Cutting spending throws millions into poverty straight away. Borrowing and printing money only delays the poverty and makes it worse. The day still comes when the money, or the value of the money, runs out.
Russia, China, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and many others throughout history all, regardless of why, damaged their economies and paid for it with many lives and a devastated populace and infrastructure.
This time however, it is not limited to one country at a time. Never in human history has such a huge part of the global economy been shut down so fast for so noble a reason. But the effect is the same. Productivity – gone. Where is the money coming from to buy food? If it is from the government, regardless of the strings attached, where is their money coming from?
I am not saying do not give golden eggs to the people that need them. What I am saying is do not kill the goose that lays them. Without that goose, there will be no golden eggs for anyone. Workers, graduates, retirees, beneficiaries, everyone will have the same problem.
I am not saying do not care about coronavirus. We all need to do the practical hygiene things (and stop immigration) that will limit its spread without killing the economy.
The delay in observable effects of coronavirus is due to its incubation period of two weeks. That makes it hard but doable to see the effects of actions, or inaction, and do something about it before it’s too late. Admittedly, Jacinda Ardern did well in this regard.
The delay in observable effects of economic collapse may be out to two months. By then, we’re toast. It’s too late to go back. Too many homes and businesses have found that out the hard way.
What are the consequences of partial national bankruptcy? Mass unrest as people starve because they cannot buy food? People’s retirement savings made worthless by hyperinflation? Domination by and subservience to the nation to which we are in debt? That nation wouldn’t happen to be China by any chance, would it?
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