I generally don’t hold much stock in political predictions, but since other commentators are giving it a go then I will too.
1. The Maori ratbags squatting at Ihumatao will be told to piss off, no money or a deal for them. It will cause ructions between NZ First and Labour, but Jacinda has been clever and not actually been there, while Winston has been consistent and there will be no re-settling of claims already settled.
2. The second tranche of the gun laws will be gutted by NZ First. The ACT party’s recent surge in the polls will have been noted and there is no way that NZ First will want more votes heading in ACT’s direction.
3. At this point in time I can’t see a path to victory for National. ACT won’t maintain their current support. New Conservatives won’t achieve anything and Destiny will be a flop. Same with Vernon Tava. In fact, all that those parties do is split the centre/right vote. They don’t take any off Labour or the Greens, which is where they have to get them from.
4. National will be the highest scoring party but it still will have no path to victory. Spending 3 years slagging off Winston won’t help, but he may still go with them if the numbers work in Winston’s favour, but the cost will be David Carter, Nick Smith and Paula Bennett. Smith will be dead last on the back bench and Bennett and Carter sacrificed as they are on the list. Bridges will chuck them under the bus faster than his vote for the Zero Carbon Bill just to get the top job. He will be useless at it, but that’s what Winston already knows. However that could all change if Bridges’ gets knifed, but caucus still thinks voters are stupid and that they will soon realise that they are indeed stupid and then miraculously return to voting for them.
It is the same arrogance that dogged Bill English in 2002, and Labour after John Key slayed the Clark dragon. We still see this attitude today in comments on this site about people being duped by Winston and regretting their vote. Saying voters are stupid, or deluded or tricked just makes those voters close their minds to whatever you had to say. This is the same arrogance currently undoing the Democrats. If Bridges remains then there is a fair to even chance that National’s vote will just ebb away closer to the election. They are too similar to Labour and so there is no real compelling reason for voters to change. Given a choice between that nice Jacinda from the red team or the nice but dim guy in his dad’s suit from the blue team, the voters will stick with what they’ve got.
5. Twyford will screw up the tram to Mangere and transport in general. The government will realise that they actually have to build roads.
6. Child poverty stats will get worse, not better.
7. Unemployment will rise.
8. Health and education will hit turbulence as all key indicators will worsen despite billions more in expenditure. The stroppy state unions that are still endemic in those sectors will flex their muscles and a torrent of bad heath stories will be forth-coming.
9. Jacinda Ardern will announce her wedding about eight weeks out from the election. The story has already been sold to a women’s magazine and it will be held in a remote location. Labour will enjoy a 5% poll jump as a result.
10. If not a wedding, then a new baby. Same poll jump.
11. Another Minister will lose their job.
12. New Zealand’s election will be overshadowed by Trump derangement Syndrome in the US Elections which Donald Trump will win.
13. The Democrats will lose the House and suffer some setbacks in the Senate.