I am a National voter. I have not always voted National, but I have done so, without fail, since 2005. I also voted for them in 1990, but I hated the Jim Bolger government, with its extreme austerity, so much that I didn’t vote for them again. It is interesting that Jim himself has turned into a bit of a socialist since leaving politics; if he had not driven so many people into hardship, he might feel differently. And, back in the day, so might I have.
I confess I voted for Helen Clark in 1999, but only once. I really did think we needed a change of government, and hers was, after all, the only real alternative.
Between 1993 and 2005, I flirted with a few of the smaller parties and the results, to be honest, were not always good. I voted for NZ First in 1996, which resulted in the sunglassed “Gang of Four” holding the balance of power. (Back then, MPs were held to account for buying boxer shorts on the ministerial credit card, which is a joke nowadays when you see what the current lot gets away with.) In 2002, as a result of the worm that turned a nation, I voted for Peter Dunne’s United future party. I was in Dunne’s electorate, Ohariu, at the time and had been impressed with him as Minister of Revenue. However, it was not long before I became singularly unimpressed with United Future. The election result meant that Dunne brought in 7 new MPs along with him. This did not end well. One was disqualified before being sworn in, as she was not a New Zealand citizen. Inexperience and bitter infighting saw the rapid decline of a centrist party that had promised so much and delivered very little. Apart from Peter Dunne, none of the MPs had much idea of what they were doing, and it showed. By 2005, they retained only 3 seats, and I never voted for them again.
In fact, I decided never to vote for a minor party ever again, as I really hate the ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario that results; and we have seen a lot of that over the last 17 years.
So on that basis, I really should vote National next year. But National have become a bit too left-leaning for my liking, and I was annoyed at them voting for the Zero Carbon Bill.
I will never vote for any party that would put the Greens anywhere near the seat of power, so for me, that means Labour and NZ First are off the list… which leaves National, ACT and possibly the New Conservatives.
I have not completely ruled out the New Conservatives, but I admit to being afraid of it being a wasted vote, so I probably will not go for them in the end.
But a vote for ACT will not be a wasted vote, and because they are slowly rising in the polls, it is quite possible that next year they will bring in more MPs and become a credible coalition partner for National, which is something it sorely needs.
But I said I would never vote for a minor party ever again.
I met David Seymour at The Backbencher at one of our WO Sump meetings, and he seems a really good guy. I would also love to see Stephen Berry, who is 5th on the ACT list, get into parliament, as I think he will be a really great MP. They will need approximately 4% of the vote to get 5 MPs, which is quite possible as their popularity increases. That would make for a really great government, I think.
But I still hate the ‘tail wagging the dog’ scenario that always results when a minor party holds the balance of power, and I have never forgotten how Peter Dunne preened and postulated in the last term of the last government. He milked every bit of goodwill ever felt towards him dry and I was truly happy to see the back of him.
I also disagree with the attitude that some voters have where they are genuine supporters of a particular party, but they vote elsewhere to ‘send a message’ to their preferred party. As we saw in 2017, this does not always work out the way you might expect, as many National voters ended up inadvertently voting in a Labour-Greens-NZ First government… which was not the ‘message’ they wanted to send at all.
So this is my conundrum. Do I vote National, with the intention of giving them as big a majority as possible, even though their newly forged title of ‘Labour Lite’ is quite deserved, or do I vote ACT, knowing that I risk the government being held to ransom over some issue I don’t agree with because… they can? Will we end up with another ‘Gang of Four’ or another postulating MP who will hold the government to ransom and stop them carrying out their promises? With the threat of the minor party bringing down the government over their heads, a major party may find itself hamstrung. I don’t want that to happen. I want them to be able to govern.
I know the election is probably still 9 months away, but I just don’t know. What do you think?