There has been a lot of talk about Christopher Luxon’s political career. Certainly, he has done nothing to dampen the excitement about him being National’s answer to the Holy Grail. Now that Paula Bennett has decided not to contest her electorate seat at the next election, speculation is rife that it is going to be gifted to Luxon, to parachute him into parliament. Luxon has not confirmed this, but it would be inappropriate for him to do so because, at the moment, he is still on the Air New Zealand payroll.
But Luxon is not necessarily National’s answer to the Holy Grail, and the speculation that he will be the next National party leader is, shall we say, somewhat premature. Nobody knows, including Luxon himself, whether or not a career in politics will suit him at all.
Outgoing Air New Zealand CEO Christopher Luxon won’t have much difficulty finding himself a safe National seat, but becoming leader would be more difficult, according to current National MPs and party sources.
There’s a belief in the party that a talented, high-profile candidate like Luxon would be a shoe-in for a safe seat like Upper Harbour, which was vacated by Deputy Leader Paula Bennett this week.
He is talented and high profile… in the business world. He has no track record in the world of politics, which is very different from business, and he may do very well in politics, but equally, he may not.
Even if he makes it as the elected representative for Upper Harbour, becoming the leader of the party, and eventually, prime minister is another story altogether.
But most observers assume someone like Luxon has their eye on being more than just the Member of Parliament for Upper Harbour. They think he has his eye on the party’s leadership, and eventually the top job of prime minister.
Getting there won’t be easy. Before he has a shot at becoming PM, he’ll have to ask his National Party colleagues to make him leader.
And while there are few serious contenders for the party leadership at the moment, that will all change within the next few years, with a number of talented younger MPs working their way up the ranks. Luxon may find himself in a logjam to become party leader in a couple of years’ time.
Rumours are rife within the party of Luxon’s posturing.
One MP believes he has quietly been securing prime radio interviews to announce his candidacy. While it’s not obvious the rumour is true, existing MPs are unhappy about the way Luxon has positioned himself.
Another MP, speaking anonymously to allow them to be more frank, said the easiest way to “p… off” National MPs would be to set up radio interviews.
“How is that helpful for anyone?” they asked, noting the only person the interviews appeared to be helping would be Luxon himself.
The first thing he needs to do is to show himself to be one of the team, prepared to roll up his sleeves and get on with the job. He needs a couple of years on the ground experience to teach him a few basics about political life. The last thing he should be doing is organising radio interviews to announce his candidacy. He is not prime minister yet.
Luxon could find himself in an unfortunate position in that he is almost certain to be put at or near the front of the queue for an electorate seat, giving him less time in which to do this all important graft.
He’s not like former PM John Key, whose graceful pivot from the corporate to the political world is the obvious model for Luxon.
Key had the luxury of being relatively unknown in New Zealand, allowing him to work hard without having the spotlight shone on him.
And Key was special.
“John Key worked his a… off to win Helensville [with] no profile,” a party source said.
Party members hated “assumed privileges” and could punish a candidate who appeared to waltz into an electorate without earning it.
This is the risk that Luxon is taking, and not just with the party. If the electorate sees him as assuming that he will just parachute into the role of leader, they may not like it, and in today’s world of identity politics, it will do him no favours. John Key didn’t do that, and to be fair, Jacinda Ardern didn’t either.
Others think ambitious MPs will move to block his way. They acknowledge the party has a leadership problem, but fancy themselves, not Luxon, as that problem’s likely solution – and hope their colleagues will eventually see their potential.
This means Luxon’s biggest problem is likely to come from other ambitious MPs who could close ranks and use their leverage in the party to block his way to the top.
STUFF
Unlike Labour, National does have some talent, admittedly mostly in the up-and-coming faction of the party, and most of them will resent someone being parachuted into the leadership role without them doing the hard work that other MPs have had to do. It will not go down well.
Particularly these days, where business is all about consensus… employees have to be consulted about everything, and have to be handled with kid gloves. Politics is still gladiatorial. Just ask Simon Bridges.
I am really not sure about Christopher Luxon. Not many business people make it as politicians, particularly someone like Luxon who is used to being treated as the big boss. He will find it hard tramping the pavements to get votes in his constituency, after his high flying (pun intended), expense account life.
It took John Key 4 years to become party leader, and he was prepared to do the hard yards to get himself there. That means Luxon will not be a leadership contender before the 2023 election. Will he be prepared to wait that long? Time will tell.
Personally, I have my doubts.