As we reported a month ago, the escalating unrest in Hong Kong is starting to sound horribly familiar. So far – so far – the communists have held back from unleashing the sort of violent repression they meted out to the pro-democracy protesters of 1989, but the signs are that their show of tolerance is about to come to an end.
It took six weeks for Li Peng to roll out the tanks in Tiananmen. Hong Kong’s protests have rolled on for over three months, but it would seem dangerous to be lulled into any sense of false security.
Today Xi censors all references to Tiananmen but almost certainly thinks the outcome justified the bloodshed. Stamping on political freedom allowed the leadership to take on the risks of market reforms, which propelled China into becoming the world’s second largest economy.
This was the devil’s bargain that many ordinary mainland Chinese made: quiescence in exchange for prosperity. But Hong Kongers already have prosperity and (still) freedom, which they don’t seem about to give up quietly.
Xi knows many ordinary mainlanders agree with him, having signed a pact of prosperity in return for political castration. And the tone of social media is clear: mainlanders reckon that Hong Kongers are spoilt and need to learn some discipline.
If Xi were to use force he would face criticism abroad but hardly a squeak at home. Rather there could be domestic trouble if he allowed the protests to continue. The fear among provincial governors is of a spreading Hong Kong virus.
theaustralian.com.au/world/the-times/will-hong-kong-become-the-21st-century-tiananmen-square/news-story/
As I’ve also written, China is a great power, but will probably never be a superpower. No small part of this is that, despite being on track to have the largest military in history, the bulk of its might is concentrated on policing internal dissent. The last thing Beijing can afford is a globally-televised show of defiance from Hong Kong.
The next few weeks will be crucial.
Protests appear to be spinning out of control. Initially peaceful marches have ended up with protesters roaming around the city, throwing rocks, street signs and metal posts.
They are being met with more serious responses from police, including the regular use of teargas, pepper spray and rubber bullets.
Sponge grenades — non-lethal riot-control projectiles fired from a launcher — have emerged in the past week. Waiting patiently in the northern town of Fanling, near the Chinese border, are Mercedes-Benz anti-riot vehicles equipped with water cannons.
The message from Beijing to the Lam administration is clear: tougher action needs to be taken.
Will that “tough action” take the form of tanks and paratroopers, as in 1989? Or something even more sinister?
A march on Saturday in the northern city of Yuen Long…was meant to draw attention to the attacks the week before by well-organised men in white shirts who used wooden poles and metal bars on ordinary people returning home on the subway in the evening.
The attacks appeared to be aimed at black-shirted protesters returning from a march. But the white shirts, some of whom were found to be triads, attacked anyone coming out of the subway indiscriminately.
The storm clouds are gathering. Violence is growing, on both sides. As police grow more heavy-handed, protesters are fighting back. Beijing’s propaganda outlets are sounding dark warnings.
The Communist Party-owned Global Times newspaper said yesterday: “The riots in Hong Kong have provided the mainland with a negative example, demonstrating how fragile social solidarity is under the Western system.
“A high degree of autonomy requires Hong Kong society to be responsible for its internal order, and the core lever to fulfil this responsibility is the rule of law…When riots are severe enough to destroy the city as an international financial centre, Hong Kong society will eventually be fed up with turbulence and begin to rebound. We believe that a bottom line exists in Hong Kong, and the turning point will come sooner or later.”
theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/china-draws-line-in-hong-kong/news-story
Well, that doesn’t sound at all ominous.
The White House is monitoring a build up of Chinese troops on the Hong Kong border as the territory’s police show signs of being overwhelmed by the increasingly violent protests.
Units of Chinese military or armed police were gathering on the border…A White House official told Bloomberg the nature of the buildup wasn’t clear: but it came just over 24 hours after Beijing called the violence in Hong Kong a “creation of the US.”
theaustralian.com.au/business/the-wall-street-journal/white-house-monitors-build-up-of-chinese-troops-on-hong-kong-border/news-story/