OPINION
May 22nd, 2024
Well, Rishi Sunak has called a general election for 4th July, thus demonstrating his total political naivety. Inflation in the UK is now at 2.3%, the GDP growth rate is increasing and the Rwanda policy seems to be working (albeit slightly) as asylum seekers are moving from the UK to Ireland. The polls regularly show the Labour Party is over 20 points ahead of the Conservatives.
Sunak delivered the news in pouring rain outside No 10 Downing Street and the image all but destroyed his credibility.
Yes, it’s wet, as a bedraggled Sunak delivers his message.
The announcement at 17-15 wasn’t helped by a demonstrator with a strong PA system blasting out Labour’s anthem “Things can only get better” from Whitehall ensuring that parts of the speech were difficult to hear.
He could have waited until nearer Christmas but has chosen to go to the polls in six weeks.
Already there are signs of a major rift in the party as those MPs whose seats look like being lost (many of the Northern seats) were totally against it and wanted to hold on, with the reason that it gave Labour more time to screw things up and frighten the electorate. This is especially true as the economy is strengthening, the legal immigration via student visas seems to be getting back under control and rumours of Labours’ tax and spend policy start to leak out. The Bank of England has forecast interest rates to fall during the next few months with the official bank rate forecast to fall on at least two occasions before the Autumn.
I am on nodding terms with the leader of the Lib Dems in Cornwall, and he is confident of regaining most of the seats from the Conservatives down here.
The election will be held the day before the first Euro 24 soccer quarter-final.
The MSM has gone from Poo to BS on the front pages as the sewage and water crisis is replaced with the electioneering output.
The mood in the country is like New Zealanders watching an Australia vs England rugby game – you want both sides to lose.
How have the Conservatives managed to get to this situation? Well, they have, in the 14 years in power had sub-standard leaders, think David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and now Rishi Sunak. As my father in his ex-military days would have said “Not worth a bucket of cold spit between them “.
Not that the Labour party is any better as they try to shake off accusations of anti-semitism. There is the danger of a resurgence of Corbynites, although Corbyn looks as though he will stand as an independent. My distant relatives in the north feel betrayed after voting Conservative at the last election but do not trust the middle class, white wine-swilling, arrogant, Islington-dwelling Labour members to deliver for the lower socio-economic groups as used to be their raison d’etre.
Looking at areas which will be the battleground the first one to strike home is the cost of living, followed by immigration and thirdly and very surprisingly the NHS. The public is getting sick of the standard of treatment from the NHS, not the clinical side, but the arrogance of the junior doctors, long waiting lists and even minor things such as excessive car park charges at hospitals. Wes Streeting, the shadow health secretary, has recently stated that the NHS must stop regarding itself as a shrine and begin to realise that it is a service. Good luck with that Wes.
In Scotland, the forecast is that the SNP may lose over 30 of the 40+ seats they hold at Westminster, with most of them going to Labour. That is probably one good thing that could be a result of the early election.
The news about the election has even banished from the front pages the Post Office scandal, with daily telecasts of the official enquiry highlighting possible lies, sleaze, deception and perjury.
This came after the “tainted blood” Commission’s report which investigated events arising from blood transfusions using contaminated blood resulting in 3,000 deaths and 30,000+ lives ruined. The estimated compensation bill is £10 billion. The commission found that over the 40 years since the problem was identified the civil service especially lied to the public, politicians and Ministers lied and the public was subjected to delaying tactics and obfuscation, all to protect the state.
The public is in an anti-politician state and doesn’t trust anything the rulers tell them. I have never seen such a level of cynicism and mistrust in the citizenry. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Reform party, with the support of Nigel Farage polled over 20%.
Finally,
An average of polls for the seven days to May 22 puts Labour on 45%, the Conservatives on 24%, Reform on 11%, the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 7%.
The gap between Labour and the Tories is typical of the lead Sir Keir Starmer’s party has enjoyed since the autumn of 2022, when the 49-day premiership of Liz Truss saw the government’s poll ratings slide from the low 30s to the mid-20s.
There has been no significant movement in the polls by the two main parties for the past year-and-a-half, with the Conservatives’ weekly average remaining below 30% while Labour has stayed above 40%.
Source Daily Mail 22nd May 2024.
The 11% for Reform varies and is very regional in its strengths so they could have a skewed impact in key seats.
As the news sinks in, I still can’t understand why Sunak has done it.