The BFD | Chance for Progress on US Hostage Deal Proposal

NEWS

BICOM

BICOM provides accurate, timely and balanced information that is read by officials, experts, journalists and many others.

What’s happened: Reports suggest that there is a chance for agreement on a hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas following negotiations in Qatar.

According to the reports, Israel has agreed to a US bridging proposal which would see between 700 and 800 Palestinian security prisoners, including around 100 life-term prisoners, released in exchange for 40 hostages among women, children, and the sick and elderly being held in Gaza.
It is suggested that there is also movement on one of Hamas’s key demands – the return of northern Gazans to their previous areas of residence. Israel is said to be prepared to consider the gradual return of more than 2,000 people each day once the hostages begin to be released. Israel is unlikely to agree to the return of Gazan men.
Elsewhere, Prime Minister Netanyahu said yesterday that Israel would operate in the city of Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold, despite US and international pressure not to do so.
“On October 7,” Netanyahu said, “Hamas committed what even President Biden called absolute evil. Absolute evil cannot be defeated when it is left intact in Rafah. We will enter Rafah and we will achieve total victory.”
Netanyahu’s remarks came during a reading with soldiers of the Megillah, the Purim story from the Book of Esther, in which Haman, the enemy of the Jewish people is defeated. “We destroyed Haman, we will also destroy Sinwar,” said the prime minister.
The IDF also began to operate yesterday in the vicinity of Al Amal Hospital in Khan Yunis, following intelligence that Hamas operatives have been using the facility.
Meanwhile, operations continue in Gaza City’s Shifa Hospital, where troops found large quantities of weapons. 20 operatives were killed in the hospital over the last day, and others arrested.
IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Hagari said last night that Hamas had hijacked Shifa and was using its patients as human shields. “Hamas is destroying the Shifa Hospital,” he said, and “is firing from inside the Shifa emergency room and throwing explosive devices from the Shifa burn ward.”
30 IDF troops were injured in combat over the weekend, 25 of them in Gaza. Two are listed as in severe condition.

Context: After weeks of frustrated negotiations, a senior Israeli official put the latest proposals’ chances of success at 50-50.

The Israeli negotiating team, led to by Mossad head Barnea and including Shin Bet Director Bar and the IDF’s Nitzan Alon, flew back to Israel from Doha last night. US CIA Director Burns also left.
The proposal reportedly accepted by Israel is similar to one floated by Qatar three weeks ago, and rejected by Israel then. A crucial difference, however, is that the current US proposal allows for the release of fewer life-term Palestinian prisoners than the Qatari proposal did.
The current framing is far more accommodating to Hamas than the proposals originally mooted in the Paris negotiations, which would have seen around 400 prisoners – and only 25 life-termers – released.
In previous responses, Hamas has pushed for a full Israeli withdrawal of forces from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire. Over the weekend, a Hamas official once more complained that Israel “refuses to agree on a comprehensive ceasefire and refuses the complete withdrawal of its forces from Gaza.”
The US has repeatedly warned Israel against an operation in Rafah, and continues to do so. Speaking on ABC’s ‘This Week’ yesterday, Vice-President Harris said “we have been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake.” Asked if there would be consequences from the US towards Israel if Israel went ahead, Harris said “I am ruling out nothing.”
President Biden has previously referred to Rafah as a US “red line”, and US officials suggested earlier in March that the Administration would consider placing conditions on its vital military aid to Israel if an operation went ahead.
Rafah is home to four of Hamas’s remaining battalions, and an estimated 1.5 million Gazans – the city’s usual population of 200,000 having been greatly swelled by Gazans who have fled fighting elsewhere in the Strip.
Israel has previously pledged to undertake an evacuation of the civilian population prior to any operation. Such an evacuation is hugely complex and demanding.
US media has reported that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) operatives who have recently regrouped in Shifa Hospital may include senior leaders. The reports suggest they considered that Israel had ceased its operations in northern Gaza and that it was safe to return.
Since Israel began its latest operation in Shifa last Monday, the IDF says that 500 Hamas and PIJ operatives have been arrested, while 170 are thought to have been killed.
A notable arrest last week was Mahmoud Qawasmeh, a high-ranking Hamas official who was an instigator of West Bank terror.

Looking ahead: Negotiators will now await Hamas’s response to the US proposal. A reply is expected within two days, with the relay of information to Hamas’s Gazan leadership continuing to take time. The final decision on accepting or rejecting the proposal is likely to rest with its Gazan leader, Yahya Sinwar.

Israeli Defence Minister Gallant left last night for an official visit to Washington. He will meet the US secretaries of defence and state, the national security adviser, and the CIA director. Before leaving, Gallant said they would be discussing the war and the return of the hostages, as well as the situation in the north and the ongoing supply of US arms to Israel. Reports over the last month have suggested that the supply of military aid has slowed.
Minister Dermer and head of Israel’s National Security Council Hanegbi are set to follow Gallant to the US later this week, for further discussion on Rafah.

UNDERSTANDING ISRAEL-UK WEAPONS TRADE

Recent reports suggest that the UK is considering ceasing arms sales to Israel. This paper looks at the current state of military trade between the two nations, in the context of strong bilateral ties.

Download BICOM’s briefing here

PODCAST

Episode 229 | Insight into Palestinian Affairs

In this episode, Richard Pater speaks to Prof. Kobi Michael, an Israeli expert on security affairs and the Palestinian arena. They discuss the performance of the IDF so far, the Israeli security calculus during Ramadan, the internal dynamics within both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority, and the need for Israel-Palestinian peace to be pursued through a multilateral regional framework. Prof. Michael is a senior researcher at INSS and the Misgav Institute, as well as a visiting professor at the International Centre for Policing and Security University of South Wales. The author of 20 books, he previously served as the deputy director general and head of the Palestinian desk at the Ministry for Strategic Affairs.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts

ARTICLE

‘Reactionary Anti-Imperialism’ as the new Totalitarian Temptation, from Foucault to 7 October

Read here

Top Stories From the UK and Israeli Media

The Financial Times and Reuters report on Israel saying it has killed 170 people and detained hundreds more in an almost week-long clash with Hamas at Gaza City’s al Shifa hospital, one of the biggest battles of the war in the Palestinian enclave. The Guardian comments on this with perspective from the Palestinian Red Crescent.

The Sun and The Telegraph report on the current state of the proposed hostage deal. The Times reports on thousands of people joining hostage families in Tel Aviv to protest for the release of the hostages still in Gaza. Reports include clashes with the police.

The Daily Mail interviews hostage families who are spending Purim separated from their loved ones being held in Gaza.

The Daily Mail also reports from Kfar Aza on what remains of the Kibbutz, speaking to the few residents who have returned there.

Sky News reports that UNRWA boss Philippe Lazzarini said Israel had told the United Nations that its convoys would no longer be approved to enter northern Gaza. It comes after Israel accused 12 UNRWA staff of participating in October’s Hamas terror attack. Nine of the accused workers were sacked.

The Financial Times reports on the debate over whether to conscript ultra-orthodox Jews to serve in the IDF.

The BBC interviews settlers in the West Bank who want to push out Palestinians from Gaza to build Jewish settlements. Interviewing Daniella Weiss, who heads a far-right settler movement (Nachala), she does not deny accusations of ethnic cleansing. The Times also reports on the current state of settlements in the West Bank.

The BBC also publishes a briefing paper on Palestinian leadership and what could be next for who leads the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The Spectator publishes a piece arguing that David Cameron is wrong to threaten ending arms sales to Israel.

The Guardian reports on Defence Minister Gallant’s visit to the US today to meet with Lloyd Austin and Anthony Blinken.

Jake Wallis Simons writes for The Telegraph arguing that Britain has allowed Hamas narratives to spread too freely.

The Sun reports on anti-Israel protesters forcing the British Museum to evacuate and close some of its entrances on Sunday.

In addition to updates about the war in Gaza and hostage negotiations in Doha, the Israeli written media –Haaretz, Yediot Ahronot, Maariv and Israel Hayom – focuses on the draft version of the government’s military conscription bill which is scheduled to be tabled for a vote at the cabinet meeting tomorrow. This bill would raise the exemption age to 35, provide no enforcement against draft dodgers for three years, and not set recruitment targets for the ultra-Orthodox population. ‘The current bill is in fact used by the government to try to postpone the legislation by three months and thus buy more time. Together with the Knesset summer recess that is approaching, the legislation will be postponed until the beginning of next year,” writes Haaretz.

Discussing Kamala Harris’ comments – that the US has been clear in multiple conversations and in every way that any major military operation in Rafah would be a huge mistake – Nadav Eyal in Maariv writes that “nearly six months after the worst massacre in its history, a massacre that evoked exceptional international solidarity with it, Israel has locked itself in an extraordinary situation in which it is more internationally isolated than ever and is mired in a conflict with the United States on a range of tactical issues. Strategically, they agree that Hamas should not govern the Gaza Strip, the hostages need to return to their homes and Iran and its allies in the region need to be deterred. But those important agreements are headlines at best, and hollow slogans at worst.” He adds that “the bad blood stems first and foremost from the suffering civilians and the footage coming out of the Gaza Strip. The Americans are fed up explaining to the Israelis that flooding the Gaza Strip with food and other aid is first and foremost in Israel’s interest. Had Israel succeeded in doing that quickly—IDF officials say we’re close to achieving that, but we’ll have to wait and see—and had the threat of starvation been completely removed, the administration might be speaking differently now. Including about Rafah. The president and his aides have been forced to hound Netanyahu to get simple things, such as opening up a border crossing into the Gaza Strip to facilitate the supply of aid and flour deliveries, as a Ramadan good will gesture. Netanyahu has dodged them, made promises that he hasn’t kept, and has stalled. That isn’t the way to treat Israel’s most important ally, especially not in a time of war.”

Kan Radio reports that local clan leaders in Gaza whom Israel contacted about possibly replacing Hamas received threats to their lives. The Israeli security establishment is considering giving clan leaders guns to protect themselves. Security officials said that it would be impossible to create an administrative alternative to Hamas without armed groups in Gaza that were not Hamas. Defence Minister Gallant is expected to discuss this issue with his American counterpart, Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin. The Americans may agree to issue weapons on their own to local leaders in the Gaza Strip after being vetted by Israel.

Army Radio reports that the increasingly prevalent view is that Minister Gideon Saar will quit the government soon because no mechanism has been found to include him in the war cabinet. Gantz vetoed Saar’s inclusion, and Prime Minister Netanyahu does not want to add Ben Gvir and Smotrich, who have demanded equal conditions to those given to Saar

Writing in Haaretz, Zvi Barel argues that “Israel, which coined the term “Hamas-ISIS” as a rhetorical creation designed to mobilise the world against Hamas, may have succeeded in proving that the group’s crimes and horrific actions are similar to the atrocities committed by ISIS, but the forming of an international coalition like the one created to counter ISIS is still very far away. This is mainly because, unlike ISIS, al-Qaeda or the Houthis, Hamas isn’t considered a global threat. This threat lies now in the very nature of Israel’s war against Hamas, as it may expand the battleground far beyond the group’s territorial stronghold in Gaza. Herein lies the enormous strategic importance of a hostage deal whose success – which will include a long and possibly permanent cease-fire – may return Gaza to its natural place as a focal point of a local conflict but not a broader regional or global one.”

Chance for Progress on US Hostage Deal Proposal

Top Stories From the UK and Israeli Media

Recommended Reading

Related

General