I’m not really intending to make this a series, but the response to my last two articles has been surprising. So let’s make it a trifecta.
Let’s talk about Winston.
Winston Peters. The Lazarus of the political scene. He has resurrected himself more times than an extra in The Walking Dead. He can be charming, mercurial, bombastic, and humorous…and he can chew up and spit out journalists at the drop of a hat.
I voted for Winston in 1996. Tired of Jim Bolger’s Government and the damage it was doing to our society (seems like it was nothing compared to today), I liked what I heard from Winston. It all ended in disaster, of course, and I learned what the term ‘the tail wagging the dog’ meant in politics. A small party holding the balance of power can call a lot of shots; this is because if they withdraw their (tiny amount of) support, it can force a government out of office. I swore never to vote for a small party again, so long as I lived.
However, in 2017, I gave some serious thought to voting for NZ First again. Unimpressed by Bill English, I fell into the trap of thinking Winston would ‘keep the government honest’. But, in the polling booth, I changed my mind and voted National. This was because Winston has a long history of making promises during the election campaign that quietly disappear once the election is over. It still never occurred to me, though, that he would go against the wishes of the majority of voters and go with Labour.
Yes, I know – it was all perfectly legitimate. Such are the vagaries of MMP. But Winston often harps on about threats to democracy…and then went against the majority of voters, including many of his own, by putting Labour into office. Maybe it was perfectly legal, but it was morally bankrupt. I swore never to even think of voting for NZ First again and hoped they would sink into oblivion.
Yet, here we are again, with NZ First having a good chance of reaching the 5% threshold at the election this year. Winston is a master campaigner and he can handle the media far better than any other politician out there at present. His support is bound to increase, again. But this time there are reasons to vote for Winston, so maybe it is time to reconsider my position from 2017.
National has promised to roll back some of the worst co-governance policies of the current government – notably 3 Waters (or whatever it is called now), and the Maori Health authority. This is good and a lot of people will vote for that. But the problem is that the National MPs involved – particularly Christopher Luxon – will be called racist. You can bet your bottom dollar on it. But if Winston is involved in the rollback, along with National and ACT, then it will be very hard to call the changes in policy racist. So he would be the ideal person to front the removal of these very racist (towards the majority of New Zealanders) policies if he does make it back into parliament, and if he does form a government with National and ACT.
There are quite a few ‘ifs’ in there that have to come together before that scenario could eventuate. Voting for that would be, at the very least, a long shot.
Historically, Winston has formed a government with Labour twice, and National only once. This time, he has claimed that he was lied to by Labour, and that he will not go into government with them again. I am taking that promise with a grain of salt. As we all know, the next NZ Government will be formed around the negotiating table, and anything can happen. Labour may have kept crucial information from him in 2020, but I am not convinced that this will mean that he is not prepared to do a deal with them again. That will depend on what Labour will offer and you can bet there will be a few sweeteners in there to make Winston sit up and take notice.
I hate the scenario where small parties effectively hold all the power. Government is not meant to be like this. But we are currently living through a government that has an overall majority in the House, and it simply rides roughshod over everyone else. This is not exactly ideal either.
However, I would rather have NZ First holding the balance of power than Te Pati Maori. I shudder to think of what their demands might be to keep the government in power. Labour already has a strong Maori caucus. A government comprising Labour, the Greens and the Maori Party might be enough to send me back to the north of England, whence I came. The damage that they could do in the next three years is simply terrifying.
I don’t feel very inclined to trust anything Winston says during his election campaign, unless he makes an absolute guarantee that he will not go into government with Labour. If he were to do that, I might feel a bit more inclined to vote for his party. The Greens always state that they will only go into government with Labour, and it would give voters more security if he were to say this. The last thing I want is to have wasted my vote, particularly in this election. We have to get rid of this government. But at the same time, I want a government that is going to be effective – rolling back the current government’s worst policies and creating new ones that will benefit all New Zealanders. Yes, All New Zealanders. Jacinda Ardern promised, on election night 2020 to govern for all of us, even those that did not vote for her. She lied.
What was that she said about never telling a lie in politics?
Winston is still on my list of ‘possibles’. I intend to keep an open mind, see what his policies are on the campaign trail and decide much closer to the election where my vote is going. But whatever his policies, there is no guarantee that he will try to implement them. If he really does hold the balance of power, he will have an opportunity to put his favoured policies in place. Remember how he was going to axe the Maori seats? He could have done that. He didn’t. That was one of the reasons I considered voting for him in 2017. Now we not only have the Maori seats still firmly in place, but we have a government that is giving control based on race, not votes. Never in my wildest dreams did I imagine this nightmare six years ago.
Yeah – I can’t decide about Winston. He is the ultimate political opportunist. But sometimes he says the things I want to hear. Trouble is, I just don’t think I can trust him enough to carry them through.