TV3 news has a poll from Tauranga, actually two polls: one for the by-election and the other a general one. They both show interesting numbers that could be the proof of the pudding, in the sense that for six months the dramatic change in the political landscape has been ever so slightly theoretical. Tauranga is the first time anybody has actually voted since then.
The by-election poll shouldn’t surprise anybody: the National chappie easily wins; the socialist list MP a poor second place and a few also-rans bring up the rear. But the general poll intrigues me. For one thing, it’s not just a foreshadowing of the by-election numbers, as a sizeable dollop of people who say they would give their party vote to Labour aren’t intending to vote for their candidate in the by-election.
This means either:
- Various constituents are irrational
- Socialists really are brain-damaged
- Labour supporters have met MP Tinetti, or
- All of the above.
But seriously, let me explain a few things about Tauranga (which, needless to say, various clever-dick ‘experts’ paid huge fees by long-suffering political parties are unaware of) and its politics in recent years.
During the last four elections (going back any further isn’t really relevant) the electorate has been transformed from being full of old people to being a bit more ‘middle New Zealand’ in its demographics. It’s probably far more accurate to describe it as a ‘mortgage-belt’ electorate than the ‘God’s waiting room’ tag it was during Winston’s heyday: more akin to, say, Upper Harbour or Ohariu, than Whangaparaoa. Many outside people think of Tauranga in a very general way, not realising that a sizeable chunk of what they are talking about is actually in the Bay of Plenty electorate (retirement villages, for instance).
During the last four elections, it has been a ‘National plus 7.7’ electorate (ie National’s party vote in Tauranga has been, on average, 7.7 percentage points above its nationwide figure) and the socialist party has been a ‘minus 10.3’ electorate (ie their party vote has averaged 10.3 percentage points under the nationwide socialist party figure). The Greens are usually about 2.5 to three per cent under their nationwide figure, with ACT roughly their average (my problem with taking much notice of the ACT numbers is their incredibly low level of support in 2014 and 17).
So if we take the TV3 party vote poll (and, don’t forget folks, those being polled are being bombarded with an election campaign), the numbers are as follows:
- National 52%
- Socialist 28%
- ACT 7%
- Greens 2.8%
Now, if we subtract 7.7 per cent from National, add 10.3 per cent to Labour, add 2.5 per cent to the commies and keep ACT where it is – in other words, extrapolate the Tauranga numbers to what has traditionally been the differential when compared with the nationwide party vote for each party – what we get is:
- National 44.3%
- Socialist 38.3%
- Greens 5.3%
- ACT 7%
A change of government, folks!
Some other thoughts I have:
- Support for ACT and the Greens ‘sounds’ about right
- TV news polls putting, for instance, the Greens in double figures never ‘sounded’ right
- Same for ACT: never quite believed they were ever anywhere near 17 per cent
- 38 per cent for the socialists also ‘sounds’ about right
- 38 per cent coincides with the figure of those who think ‘the country is headed in the right direction’.
Don’t want to make a snide comment along the lines of ‘the media copping handouts don’t want to publish polls putting National in the mid-40s’ (but you get the general idea).