I love a by-election! They’re just so different from a regular election, with the entire country focused on one seat and a plethora of nutjobs and local oddities able to milk the attention. New Zealand has been relatively starved of them lately, with the coming Tauranga by-election the first since Northcote in 2018. Between 2009 and 2018, there had been ten.
While a date is yet to be set, the Speaker of the House advertises the vacancy of a seat in the New Zealand Gazette with the Governor-General issuing a written notice within 21 days directing the Chief Electoral Officer to conduct a by-election. The Prime Minister decides the date it will be held, which must be a Saturday, though voting is open for two weeks.
The Tauranga by-election is the result of National MP Simon Bridges choosing to retire after fourteen years in Parliament. In 2018, there was much sneering and derision at Jonathan Coleman’s decision to resign and take up a job in the private health sector shortly after the 2017 election. Personally, I think if an MP has decided they’re done with the role, then they should move on. Voters deserve active representation, not a disengaged retiree counting down the days until the next election.
Doing the role of Member of Parliament properly is a gruelling regime of double-digit daily working hours, very few days off and little time spent with family. As an MP who is not a chairperson or deputy chairperson of a select committee, his salary is a relatively paltry $147,565. Conversely, Green Party lunatic Ricardo Menendez-March, as deputy chair of the Transport and Infrastructure Selection Committee is paid $152,093. Bridges’ career and earnings reached their peak when he was Leader of the Opposition from 2017-2020, below the Speaker of the House in the constitutional hierarchy and unlikely to better that; unless he has the patience of Bill English.
As Bridges relinquishes the Finance portfolio, National Leader Christopher Luxon has designated Deputy Leader Nicola Willis as his successor. Feminism is cancer and it appears Luxon’s affliction with it has already reached his brain. Willis may have done well as housing spokesperson against Labour’s Minister of Being a House Megan Wood, but that’s hardly a contest. The former Fonterra executive up against Grant Robertson, who despite being a disastrous Finance Minister is a formidable opponent, is going to struggle.
No sitting Government has won a by-election since 2001: National MP Pansy Wong, forced to resign from her Botany seat, was succeeded by Jami-Lee Ross, who beat Labour candidate Michael Wood with a majority of 3,972 votes. There has not been an example of a sitting Government winning an opposition electorate since 1932. The Motueka electorate held by Independent George Black, who committed suicide, was won by Reform Party candidate Keith Holyoake (later to become National Party Prime Minister from 1960-1972).
In the 2020 election, the Tauranga seat came the closest to being won by Labour since the 1935 election when it was won by one-term MP Charles Burnett. Labour candidate Jan Tinetti (Minister of Women, Internal Affairs and Associate Education Minister) came within 1,856 votes of creating an upset. Labour also won the party vote in Tauranga with 18,547 vs. National’s 14,347 but that in itself is not exceptional. The only electorate National won the party vote in was Epsom, and Labour is no longer polling the 50.1% they achieved in 2020.
Results of the 2020 election in Tauranga
Electorate Vote:
| CANDIDATE | PARTY | VOTES |
| Simon Bridges | National | 18721 |
| Jan Tinetti | Labour | 16865 |
| Josh Cole | Green Party | 1901 |
| Cameron Luxton | ACT New Zealand | 1739 |
| Erika Harvey | New Zealand First | 1595 |
| Andrew Caie | The Opportunities Party | 935 |
| Paul Hignett | New Conservative | 725 |
| Daniel Crosa | Advance NZ | 471 |
| Tracy Livingston | NZ Outdoors Party | 188 |
| James Capamagian | 83 | |
| Yvette Lamare | 63 |
Party Vote:
| PARTY | VOTES |
| Labour | 18547 |
| National | 14347 |
| ACT New Zealand | 3952 |
| Green Party | 2407 |
| New Zealand First | 1595 |
| New Conservative | 1032 |
| The Opportunities Party | 847 |
| Advance NZ | 540 |
| Maori Party | 155 |
| Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party | 139 |
| ONE Party | 95 |
| NZ Outdoors Party | 53 |
| Vision New Zealand | 51 |
| Sustainable New Zealand Party | 31 |
| Social Credit | 11 |
| TEA Party | 9 |
| HeartlandNZ | 3 |
Who will run?
- National will obviously run a candidate, though with no change of MP for fourteen years, it is difficult to speculate who may be in favour. There are three Northern region representatives of the Board of Directors: Token Polynesian Jannita Pilisi and Epsom electorate chairperson Sylvia Wood are highly unlikely though former Young Nats President Stefan Sunde couldn’t be ruled out. At time of writing I am unable to find the names of the members of National’s Tauranga electorate committee.
- Labour will certainly field a candidate and given Jan Tinetti has done the job twice before, she is as good as anyone. However, her ministerial responsibilities and Labour’s certain annihilation, would be reason enough to allow a fresh face the opportunity. Maybe unsuccessful Coromandel candidate Nathaniel Blomfield, Bay of Plenty based List MP Angie Warren-Clark or failed Rotorua candidate Claire Mahon could get the nod. Should Labour win Tauranga with a current List MP, Lemauga Lydia Sosene would be elected from the party list.
- By-elections weren’t always ACT’s forte during the lean years of 2011-2020. In my opinion they missed a golden opportunity to contest the Mt. Albert by-election of 2017 which National chose not to field a candidate in. Unfortunately the 2018 Northcote by-election, in which I finished fourth, was too close a race for many to be willing to risk a Labour/National victory by voting Act. 2020 candidate Cameron Luxton is understood to be interested, though given the popularity of the party these days, he won’t be the only one. Due to not having a current list MP situated near Tauranga, Act will likely choose someone who was high on their list in 2020 and stands the chance of being in a higher position in 2023. Luxton could be that person; I understand former Tauranga Mayor Greg Brownless talked to people closely associated with Act’s campaign about standing in 2020, but Act’s strategy of campaigning only for the party vote was likely a sticking point. Clearly that wouldn’t be an issue this time. Another question Act should consider is whether they mount a serious campaign to win the seat or simply fly the flag for their policies. Given the party received nearly $1 million in donations in the past month and that a big by-election campaign will bring in more donations, I think they should campaign for the win.
- The Greens have no chance of success and if Josh Cole wants another chance, then there will be little competition.
- New Zealand First is a wildcard option. Not because I think they will win but because their intentions are so unpredictable. Winston Peters would be foolish to run given he has very little chance of winning. Unlike the successful Northland by-election campaign, he doesn’t have the platform of Parliament to assist him this time. The other most likely candidate appears to me to be Darroch Ball, the Deputy Leader who contested Rotorua in 2020. Peters may see that possibility as too much of a threat and keep New Zealand First out of the contest altogether.
- I’m sure New Conservatives will run, hoping to capitalise on their participation in the anti-mandate protests outside Parliament. Co-Leader Ted Johnston is running for Mayor of Auckland, which will mean he either chooses to focus on that instead or uses the by-election as a platform to raise his profile. Co-leader Helen Houghton would be the other logical suggestion, though she is based in Christchurch.
- In case you haven’t noticed, and very few people have, The Opportunities Party elected Raf Manji as their leader in February. Who? Exactly. If there’s one candidate I’m absolutely certain will stand, it is Manji.
- Advance NZ no longer exists.
- The Maori Party generally doesn’t contest general electorate by-elections. Racists.
- From the minnow parties, Social Credit and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis party will almost certainly stand as will Outdoors NZ, potentially rebranded as the Outdoors Freedom Movement following their participation in the anti-mandate parliamentary occupation. Anarchist ‘party’ Not A Party tends to show up in by-elections, campaigning on a platform of not voting, while serial by-election candidate Adam Holland has expressed interest in using it as a platform to expose the exploitation of migrant workers by politicians.
The result of the Tauranga by-election is almost certainly a foregone conclusion. National will win; however, that need not prevent the exercise from being entertaining, full of pork-barrelling, sideshows and spectacular gaffes.