The October Taxpayers Union Curia poll found that with male voters, the centre-right parties were ahead of the centre-left parties. If it were 1892, there would be a National/ACT Government
Male voters were:
- CR: National 26%, ACT 24% = 50%
- CL: Labour 32%, Greens 5% = 37%
However female voters were:
- CR: National 19%, ACT 9% = 28%
- CL: Labour 58%, Greens 7% = 65%
So men are already in favour of changing the Government. However, it won’t happen unless the two CR parties can lift their share of the female vote to around 40%. They need to get 1 in 10 women to swap from Labour or Greens to National or ACT.
Polling over many decades has shown that female voters tend to care more about the education and health systems performance than the economy. Not all women of course, but on average more women. The good news for National and ACT is that there is lots of potential for dissatisfaction. However, to win voters over, they need to do more than critique the failures of the status quo. They need bright attractive policies, and funding to match them.
Within education, I would focus especially on early childhood education. Money spent there can do more to help a child succeed later in life than money spent on free tertiary fees for lawyers.
Within health, I would focus on the other end of the age spread. People want to know that as they age, they will be able to get the care they need to have a decent quality of life. The looming backlog in elective surgery is going to be an issue.
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