This week’s polls have been horrendous for Simon Bridges and the National Party and last night would have pushed many over the edge. Its only natural to want to get a giant eraser out and expunge the results, the pollsters, the people involved, the memory – everything. Anything for a clean slate and a restart.
The skill of a real leader is the ability to weigh things up carefully and determine the right time to cut the losses and move on. Quality decisions are made by quality leaders, not by democratic decree where the rabble get to force their way through by weight of numbers in a state of complete panic (it’s worth considering that picture when thinking of elections and citizens’ initiated referendums but that’s another story for another day).
The worst possible time to make important decisions is under pressure. The bigger the pressure the worse the time. That doesn’t mean that decisions should be put off until the time is right. That could take forever. It just means that the greater the pressure the harder you need to work on minimising the negatives and thinking through all the potential unintended consequences.
The National Party has for some time stood in deep waters of dissent. They chose a leader who never did resonate with the electorate and has continued to not resonate with the electorate.
This week, the “rabble” has made its view clear (yet again) through several polls. Caucus now has a choice to make: Will they join the rabble and demand change, any change as long as its change? Or will they think this through and consider all possible implications and consequences?
Their choices are limited and their decision today really is crucial and could determine the outcome of the coming election, the future of this country and the future of their political party. The consequences if they get this decision wrong, are huge and for many of them, deeply personal.
In a post earlier this week, I offered 10 reasons why Simon Bridges polls so badly. None of them is new or unique and they all simply point to how he comes across to the electorate. They are not a reflection of his character or intellect nor was my post a call in support of change. The polls are a reflection of the views held by a statistically selected group of people who were polled. The polls are representative of the “electorate” and those polls say Bridges is toast.
But what alternatives are there and will they make any difference at all?
People here constantly refer to Judith Collins as the only possible replacement. By and large the comments seem to be that she would be able to tackle the PM head on and wipe the floor with her and because of her well documented spirited eloquence, Ms Collins would clearly highlight the failings of this inept and useless government single handed.
Even if she were to accept the position and gain 20% poll support for being leader, there are some questions to consider if we think this is the solution to National’s problem
- How will she improve things given she polls almost the same as Bridges? (if you add 20% to 3% it still doesn’t change much.
- Why would Ms Collins accept this at this time? It’s surely a hospital pass.
- For all her skills, could she make up the amount of ground needed?
- If you were her, would you stand for the position knowing it is almost a given that it will be terminal for your political career?
- If Ms Collins doesn’t stand, will next best be good enough?
We’re doing a lot of wishful thinking aloud in the search for a miracle and we have good reason to want that, but there is a major problem. There is no obvious, charismatic, recognized personality in the National Party today that could step up with confidence and the necessary skills to perform the three and a half month miracle we’re praying for.
Simon Bridges is either very brave or very stupid or he has a huge rabbit stored away in a hat somewhere waiting to be pulled out at the right time.
Stranger things have been known to happen in politics.
The decision they make today will tell us a lot about National; but whatever they decide, right at this moment, it will probably be too little too late.
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