Editor’s note: additional information is provided at the end of the article.
Unless something drastic happens and ACT implodes, they are getting my list-vote. I urge you do so too, if we want a conservative coalition in charge of this country. It’s simple:
- Mr Seymour has worked hard in Parliament, has not backed away from taking positions unpopular amongst the press fifth-brigade, and has a sense of humour.
- ACT has taken a libertarian stance on issues important to me and had the courage to convey those against the emotionally driven totalitarianism of our current socialist masters.
- Every list-vote ACT is worth more than 3.5x that of a National vote.
Due to the Mickey Mouse Proportional representation system, we have imposed on ourselves, the popular parties are at an extreme disadvantage with regard to list-member representation. Despite overwhelming numbers, National was reined in by the unfairness of this system. They clearly won the most list votes in 2017 with 1,152,075 (44.45%) of those cast, only to be rewarded with just 15 seats (25%) of the list’s 60 seats available.
Put another way: every National list seat cost 76,805 ballot papers, each successful Labour candidate required just 38,599 while the dog-wagging tails called Green and NZ First required a paltry 20,305 and 20,785 respectively.
It’s statistically as clear as it is unfair: each minor-party list vote has more than 3.5 times the power of the dominant party vote. Should ACT retain their electorate seat and current 0.5% list-voters and gain just 10% of National list-voters ACT’s Mr Seymour would walk into parliament with six colleagues in tow. National would lose just two from their list, giving an ACT/Nat coalition 61 seats. If fifteen percent of traditionally National-aligned ballots went the ACT way it will be a clear majority. Praise be.
ACT will straighten National out on several important issues, I have no doubt about that, although I did harbour some concerns previous to Mr Seymour’s display this term. I thought we were watching a party in its death throes but Mr Seymour has brought it back and deserves our support. ACT will be more than a ginger-group, they will hold real power and not be afraid to negotiate or insist.
If we want a conservative coalition this is a more than 3.5:1 no-brainer. Vote: ACT.
Mea Culpa
A reader has, thankfully, and correctly, pointed out the logical fallacy apparent in my post as it stands.
I made a major error by omission in the post of my calculation regarding the factor of the influence of party vote allocation in the coming election, due to stupid wishful thinking.
My calculation for list-seat allocation was based on NZ First falling below the 5% threshold, therefore eliminating them from the calculations at ‘Step 2’ of the Sainte-Laguë Formula used to allocate our list-vote seats which looked like this after the last election:
I have no explanation for omitting my hopeful, spurious, cheeky, debatable speculation of eliminating NZ First from the equation and post both, except that I dearly wish it so, but without which important clarification the post is, as quite rightly pointed out, a logical fallacy.
I do believe NZ First will fall below the threshold, I will party-vote ACT and urge all to do the same, and look forward to a conservative coalition in charge post-September, 2020.
Plus; the dog ate my homework.
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