In the past few years, election results seem to have shown political polls to be less and less accurate, so it’s hard to know how much importance to place on them.
The actual polling processes haven’t changed much except perhaps in some isolated cases where we’re seeing more internet-based polling. That throws up questions about the randomness of the samples and what effect that might have on the final outcome.
Certainly, the polling companies have modified their procedures to include mobile phones, a matter that had the potential to distort outcomes given how few people use landlines these days.
So if it’s not the processes, maybe it could be as simple as people being less inclined to admit their true thinking in this highly divisive world we live in. Either way, the polls are all we have as an indicator of what the electorate might be thinking, and it’s no coincidence that they might also reflect the general feedback we get when talking to friends and colleagues.
One of the best providers of a “feel for the electorate” always used to be taxi drivers. These days, with the large number of immigrant drivers, who in many cases are still finding their feet here and who might also be a little more timid culturally than we are, that lucrative information source has pretty much fallen by the wayside.
So what do we make of the latest One News/Colmar Brunton figures?
National 46% (down 1)
Labour 39% (down 1)
Preferred Prime Minister
Ardern 36% (down 2)
Bridges 10% (up 1)
Simon Bridges told Newstalk ZB he’s happy with his current position while the government are ‘panicky and scrambling’, adding that when it comes to the public, he doesn’t want to be loved.
“Bridges says that the Government has got the end of their second year and the polls show they haven’t delivered. He says that their latest announcements are “scrambled eggs”, such as the cannabis referendum and the electoral donations law. “There’s a real sense that they’re a bit distracted, they’re not doing the stuff that needs to be done.”
There’s some truth in what Bridges is saying although you can hardly call it anything new. This government has been delivering “scrambled eggs” since the day it took office.
What is new and a good reason for some guarded optimism is the overall outcome.
With the Greens on a steady 7%, New Zealand First on 4% and ACT up 1 point to 2%, if we’re willing to believe the polls and there was an election today, NZ First would be gone and National would govern with ACT.
Before we celebrate too much (because this is so much what we want to believe) – remember that what happens on election day is the only poll that counts. I’m picking a deal will be done to get Jones elected in Northland and unless the “electorate” of the right learns to vote strategically, nothing will change – three more years of ______ (I’ll leave you to have the last word).