The latest 1News poll is out and they exclaim that National plus one seat from ACT means that they can govern alone. That means that they would achieve something John Key never did and let’s face it if Key couldn’t do it then it is highly unlikely that it will happen under Bridges.
The headline numbers are:
National Party: 47% (Up 2% points)
Labour Party : 40% (Down 3%)
Green Party: 7% (Up 1%)
New Zealand First: 4% (Up 1%)
ACT: 1% – (Steady)
Maori Party: 1% – (Steady)
The Opportunities Party 1% (Steady)
Don’t know (14%) or refused to answer (4%).
That is higher than John Key ever scored. If you think a Simon Bridges led National party can score higher than a John Key led National party then you are seriously deluded.
Secondly, 1News hasn’t really factored in any redistribution of wasted vote.
Thirdly, National and Labour always slump during the election campaign; this is likely the high tide mark for National.
Fourthly, NZ First always goes up during the campaign. It is unlikely they will fall below 5%, especially when people start to realise two things. National’s vote remains high despite the poor form of its leader. No government has ever been formed when the leader is polling a long way second. This means people are voting National despite Simon Bridges and believe National will replace him. When they realise he is still there close to the election watch National’s numbers fall. When that happens they have to go somewhere, and it won’t, despite the hopes of some commenters, be to New Conservatives. They are likely to go to NZ First.
Fifthly, there are 14% don’t know and 4% refused to answer; they will go somewhere, as we have very high turn outs for general elections.
It’s a nice poll, but there is a long way to go until the election. I can guarantee one thing. National will never score higher than they did under John Key, and anyone who thinks they will is out to lunch. People are supporting National despite the leadership of Simon Bridges, and they think National will gut him like a trout when the time is right.