The botch-up that was last years Census has a lot of ramifications – more than most of us realise. One of the things that will be affected is the 2020 election. Normally, a census will result in the redrawing of electoral boundaries, which are often adjusted because of population changes. Because of very high levels of immigration over the past few years, it is more than reasonable to expect there to be some boundary changes, particularly in Auckland, with the possibility of one or two new electorates. But how can this be done without reliable statistical information? Truth is… it probably can’t.
And this may cause a rather big headache for the government.
National is demanding that data from the census not be used to draw up any new electorates. Instead, leader Simon Bridges is insisting that the old electorates – based on the 2013 census – be used in their place. Given the Government isn’t planning on another census until 2023, following through on this could well result in two elections with old electorates.
Yet National has the potential to seriously destabilise the election with this attack, and it’s got the Government worried. Even though electorates are extremely unlikely to decide who gets to form governments under MMP, attacking the legitimacy of an election is a potent tool rarely used in New Zealand politics.
That will mean no changes for 10 years, at a time when the number of immigrants have been around 70,000 each year. Whether National will follow through with this is not yet clear, but I agree that it would be wrong to draw up new electorates, or change boundaries based on flawed census data.
The Government can point to the independent report out this week which found that the population data garnered from the census and other sources would be of sufficient quality to build electorates out of, but National’s argument has strong emotional resonance: They screwed up the census, so should we really allow them to screw up the election too? Instead of just attacking the Government, you attack the entire system.
Well, this government hasn’t been successful at anything, so why not cast doubt over them completely by claiming that the election is invalid too?
There’s also already-controversial changes to election rules. Since the basket-case of an inquiry into the last election won’t be done in time, Andrew Little has moved to make voting more accessible next election, most notably by allowing people to register to vote and cast their vote on election day.
A study on how same-day enrolment/voting affected the last election suggested it increased turnout by as much as 7.6 per cent – quite a bump – and National MP Nick Smith is accusing Labour of screwing the scrum with these changes, increasing the chances of its own electoral success.
Being able to vote while at the supermarket may also make a difference, although personally, I think it is a bad idea. I think you should give careful consideration to your vote… not just turn up at the supermarket and cast your vote while waiting at the deli counter.
And that’s before we even touch the hot rod of prisoner voting, which wouldn’t actually change the election outcome in any serious way, but could cause serious and sustained emotional debate.
One of the things keeping Labour up at night right now is National’s bulging war chest and its clear desire to spend that money pummelling the Government with Facebook ads.
Let’s face it, there is plenty to attack this government’s record with. It is a treasure trove for the opposition.
The Government is far from blameless when it comes to the chaos that awaits us next year.
we will probably see two referendums attached to the election: definitely one on recreational cannabis and quite likely one on euthanasia.
The Government will say that both are binding. But confusingly only the euthanasia one – which isn’t a Government bill – will actually go into law if the referendum passes, making it the only binding referendum on the table. The Government’s cannabis bill will only be set out in “draft” form at the election, and only “binding” if Labour stays in power.
Both sides think these referendums will boost turnout for them. The Greens are particularly keen on the cannabis vote getting out their base and keeping them well above 5 per cent. But these referendums will also bring out serious social tensions, serious lobbying campaigns, and a whole lot of distraction from the actual issues of the campaign.
STUFF
But all of these factors will fade into real insignificance if the storm clouds that began to seriously gather over the US economy in the past week turn into a full-on storm. If there’s a recession to contend with, all bets are off.
Those storm clouds are real. We may be buffered by overseas events, but we also have a government that has no idea how to run the economy, and many people know it. The signs are all there already. Things are going to get rough for many of us in the next year or two.
So there you have it. By the next election, this government will have delivered us 200 Kiwibuild houses (out of a promised 11,000), a failed census, the ability to get Airpoints as you vote, a faltering economy and the opportunity to become a nation of potheads.
What’s not to like, comrades?