It is a big question. At what age should people receive government superannuation? Currently, in New Zealand, the age is 65, the qualification is automatic and it is not means-tested. Most of us, observing overseas trends, accept that this situation will change in time… although, surprisingly, there is an increasing feeling that the age should NOT be increased. This from TVNZ.
In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, 68 per cent of respondents wanted the current eligibility age of 65 to remain the same, 18 per cent wanted it to rise and 12 per cent wanted it lowered.
Remain at 65 – 68%
Be higher than 65 – 18%
Be below 65 – 12%
Don’t know – 2%
So only 18% of people want the retirement age to be raised, according to a TVNZ poll. I confess I am surprised. Okay, there is always the ‘turkeys don’t vote for Christmas’ argument, but we do not have a population where 82% of people are over 65, or rapidly approaching it.
The groups more likely than average to want it raised were people aged over 70, Wellingtonians and people with yearly income averages between $100K-$150K. Those more likely to want it lowered below 65 were Asian New Zealanders, Pacific peoples and people aged 40-49.
Support for the current age of 65 has risen. The 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll back in March 2017 found 59 per cent wanted eligibility to stay the same and 28 per cent wanted it raised. That poll was conducted after the previous National Government proposed raising the age to 67 by 2040.
TVNZ
Don’t you love the way people over 70 want the qualification age to be raised? I think that is generally known as doing well for yourself, and then pulling up the ladder behind you. Turkeys DO vote for Christmas. Older turkeys do, anyway.
But here is the thing.
Everyone focuses on the ‘ageing population’ as if everyone is getting older… which is true, of course. But New Zealand is a country where we have a large number of immigrants, most of whom come here to work and to improve their lives.
So yes. We do have a lot of people who will qualify for superannuation now and in the next 10 years. That is the baby boomer generation – the generation born after World War II – the last of them born in 1965.
But our immigration policies, quite rightly, focus on much younger people. In fact, we hear all the time of older people being refused residency… even though they are often good people with the ability to contribute to society… for a few years anyway.
Migrants must be 55 years old or less, but the points system used means that people applying for residence here will struggle if they are over 40, as younger people are awarded significantly more points.
Seeing that we are constantly told that we have an ‘ageing population’, would it surprise you to know that the median age in New Zealand, taken from the 2013 census, is actually 38?
Approximately 275,000 people arrived in New Zealand between June 2014 and May 2019. Bearing in mind that most of them will be under 40, and a fair number will actually be children, do you not think that these numbers somewhat counter the number of baby boomers?
When interviewed on TVNZ, Cameron Bagrie claimed that currently, there are 5 taxpayers for each retiree. Somewhat disingenuously, however, he then went on to claim that, in 20 years time, there will be only 2 taxpayers to each retiree.
But how can that be if we are bringing in around 60,000 people (net) each year, and the average age of those coming here would be less than 40? That is approximately 1.2 million younger people coming into the country in the next 20 years, assuming immigration levels remain the same.
Some of those immigrants will be families, with school-age (or younger) children. Many of those coming in now will have more children or will grow up and have children. The last time I looked, nobody gave birth to an old person.
Bagrie also seems to be forgetting that, as the boomer generation started in 1945, many will be dead in 20 years, and those boomers that fall in the middle of the boomer cycle will be well into their 80s by then.
I know the boomer generation is the one that can do anything but living forever is beyond even them.
In other words, the situation regarding our ‘ageing population’ is likely to worsen for a few more years and then will improve, as younger people begin to outnumber older people significantly.
And if I can do a little bit of research and come up with these numbers, surely an economist like Cameron Bagrie could do the same thing. But once again, it is all about presenting a particular narrative, rather than anything with a grain of actual truth.
So enjoy your superannuation, oldies. You deserve it and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. And before you buy into the ‘ageing population’ mantra, don’t forget – the median age in this country is less than 40… something Cameron Bagrie conveniently forgot to mention.