A couple of interesting things happened in Australian politics over the weekend. One drew a lot of attention, the other passed almost without mention. Yet, both signal trouble ahead for the Albanese government.
The first was the Fadden by-election, which delivered a thumping win to the Coalition. Of course, as leftists spent all Sunday reassuring themselves, Fadden is a safe Coalition seat. Yet, the same people spent all Saturday crowing that an imminent Labor win was going to be the death knell of not just Peter Dutton’s leadership, but the entire Coalition. Yet, Labor not only didn’t win, its vote went backwards.
Not, in itself, a terribly ominous sign — but taken with the little, mostly unremarked thing, a tremor that may well be the first signal of a coming seismic event.
That second, little, mostly unremarked thing, was a curious statement by a senior Labor powerbroker and Special Minister of State: Losing the Voice will have no impact on PM’s leadership.
Now, why would he say that?
The referendum for an Indigenous voice to parliament has suffered a collapse in support among women voters and in the regions as the referendum heads toward defeat, with just 41 per cent of voters now saying they will vote yes.
For the first time, women are now more likely than men to vote no, a central change to core support based on gender.
The No vote in the regions has also blown out to 62 per cent, confirming a widening demographic split between city and bush.
Women are notoriously prone to voting with “the vibe”, especially on feel-good, motherhood issues, while men are notably harder to persuade. Yet, in just three weeks, the number of women intending to vote Yes has fallen a precipitous 10%. If the female vote for the voice is collapsing, the referendum is dead in the water.
And that’s even before a voting date is announced, or campaigning officially launched.
The Australian has confirmed the No campaign provided its pamphlet to the AEC on Friday, with the Yes23 group submitting its pamphlet on Monday […]
But the Albanese government faces a deteriorating outcome with overall support for the voice to parliament and executive government falling further in the past three weeks in the wake of confusion over its function and scope.
All they’ve got left are Zoomers and Arts grads. For now.
The only key demographics showing support above 50 per cent were among 18-to-34-year-olds and the university-educated. But even then, among these groups favourability has fallen.
In the previous survey 63 per cent of younger voters approved of the proposed referendum compared to 59 per cent in the latest poll – with a rise in the number who now say they are undecided.
The Australian
Now, the statement about a loss supposedly not impacting the PM’s leadership makes sense: Labor know they’re losing. They’re going into damage-control mode.
After all, this referendum is Albanese’s baby. Despite never mentioning once during the election campaign, Albanese declared it his “number-one priority” for his first term. As Brexit showed, losing a referendum can be fatal to a prime minister who’s backed it all the way.
Albanese has two choices: go all-in to try and save the Yes case (and glue himself even harder to the political tar-baby it’s become) or call the whole thing off. Given that a date hasn’t been locked in, thereby mandating that it must go ahead, that remains a distinct possibility.
The collapse in support among women is also due to the fact that female voters are also, pollsters are well aware, even more highly attuned to cost-of-living issues than men. Australia is locked in a full-blown cost-of-living crisis — and Albanese makes a racially-divisive referendum his number-one priority?
The honeymoon is officially over. Voters are souring on the Albanese government as cost-of-living concerns go unanswered.
Having milked the blame game for the past year, Labor now faces demands from voters that it has answers to their concerns.
So far, though, its only answer is a staggeringly expensive zealotry for “Net Zero”, which is almost single-handedly driving the cost-of-living crisis — in tandem with a similar obsession with record-high immigration, which is driving the simultaneous housing crisis.
The cost-of-living issues that played out in Fadden are evident nationwide. Inflation, rental costs and mortgage stress are not getting any easier, yet there are no solutions from Canberra on the horizon.
And while other issues have distracted both major parties as they engage in peripheral political debates in Canberra, the more disaffected voters are going to become.
The outcome of which is that voters are deserting the major parties even more than they did at the 2022 election.
Considering the lack of attention to people’s primary concern over the past three weeks, its hardly surprising the latest Newspoll delivered an electoral pox on both houses.
The Greens are up, One Nation is up, the vote for independents is up.
Both the major parties are down, Labor more so and at its lowest point since the election.
An election, in its turn, which was the lowest primary vote for Labor in a century; the second-lowest in Australian history.
For the first time, there are early indications that the cost-of-living crisis is starting to eat into Labor’s primary vote as well. The lag effect is potentially playing out […]
Not that this should sound alarm bells yet for Labor.
The Australian
Not just yet, perhaps — but the longer this plays out and the more obvious it becomes that Albanese and his team just do not have the answers, the worse it will get.
The only question, now, is whether Dutton can whip his party — especially the soggy blue-greens who, like Luxon’s National in NZ, appear to think that the way to win an election is to slavishly ape every lunar policy of the demented green left.