The plutocratic Establishment is planning to blitz long-suffering Australians with a multi-million dollar splurge of advertising for the “Yes” side of the “Voice” referendum in Australia. As well they might: for all their public show of confidence, the latest Roy Morgan polling shows that the referendum is in deep trouble.
Support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped across Australia in all six States over the last four months and after Liberal Party Leader Peter Dutton announced the party would formally advocate for a ‘No’ vote in the forthcoming referendum due later this year.
The survey was conducted before the Coalition’s shadow ministry reshuffle this week which led to the promotion of two Aboriginal women, Senator Jacinta Nampijina Price and Senator Kerrynne Liddle, into the shadow ministry including Senator Price as Shadow Minister for Indigenous Australians.
There’s a bit to unpack in the numbers. For instance, the “Yes” vote, while still short of a majority, outweighs the “No” vote — because a great many are still undecided. But the momentum is not going the government’s way. The Yes vote is falling falling sharply(46%, down 7%), while No is rising even more sharply (39%, up 9%).
Meanwhile, the significant Undecided vote (15%, down 2%) is not moving the way the government would like. Most of the 3% rise in No appears to be Undecided voters shifting to the No camp. This is entirely in keeping with the history of referendums in Australia.
Past experience shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote. This trend has been observed even over the last few months as ALP and Greens supporters who were ‘Undecided’ have been far more likely to move to the ‘No’ vote rather than becoming a ‘Yes’ vote.
Australians are extremely Constitutionally cautious. Of forty-four referendums since Federation, only eight have ever passed. None have ever passed without bipartisan support. Peter Dutton’s courageous decision to stand up to the “Racism!” shrieking of the left is having its effect. Elevating prominent Aboriginal Australian MPs who oppose the Voice to the Coalition’s front bench will likely have even more.
“Both Senator Nampijinpa Price and Senator Liddle are opposed to ‘The Voice’ and will give weight and credibility to the Coalition’s argument that ‘The Voice’ is not the right solution to resolve the issues facing indigenous Australians.”
The Yes camp’s endless bellowing and finger-wagging that anyone who disagrees is “racist” is ringing increasingly hollow. In fact, most No voters say they oppose the referendum because it is racist.
For the 39% of respondents who said they would vote ‘No’ to the establishment of an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament’ the key themes they mentioned were:
Because it would be ‘divisive’ – it’s a racist idea and will be undemocratic;
It would divide the country by race;
The lack of detail and not enough information means I can’t support something that I don’t understand; and
There’s already good representation of indigenous Australians in Parliament.
While there are clear political, gender and age battlelines, it’s significant that Yes is falling across all political parties. While support amongst Labor and Greens voters remained steady, the Undecideds are moving sharply in just one direction: No. The Undecided vote in both parties has translated directly to a rising No vote on the left.
Liberal, National, One Nation and independent voters, already opposed to the Voice, are growing more solid in their opposition. What little support there was has collapsed.
There has been a clear drop in support of a similar magnitude for ‘The Voice’ amongst both genders and across the four key age groups over the last four months […]
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there has been a loss of support for ‘The Voice’ over the last few months as positions have hardened and the Liberal Party formally announced in early April it would campaign to oppose ‘The Voice’:
“A special Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey in mid-April shows support for ‘The Voice’ has plunged since December 2022 […] Support for ‘The Voice’ has dropped amongst both genders and all age groups and crucially – support is down in all six States around Australia. For a referendum to pass in Australia a majority of voters around the country as well as a majority of voters in at least four out of the six States must vote in favour of a change.
“As of mid-April, only Victoria maintains majority support for ‘The Voice’ with 52% of Victorians saying they will vote ‘Yes’.”
Roy Morgan
So, it seems increasingly likely that the “Voice” is destined for the same historical dustbin as 80% of previous referendums.
Which begs the question: will Anthony Albanese’s leadership survive a repudiation of his attempt to write himself into the history books?