11th January 2022.
It is a while since my last letter from Myanmar, mostly because my sources are drying up. They have managed to leave the country and make their way to the USA, Australia and the UK. Media sources are also becoming tight with the Junta clamping down on reporters.
The conflict has reached a stalemate with a regular state of guerrilla ambushes and Junta strikes against villages, with increased brutality towards civilians. What once was newsworthy in the West has now become mundane. The military expected the conflict to have been over by June last year, but instead, the resistance has firmed and in certain areas, they have the upper hand. In December 2021 there were 2,300 deaths in the military which are having an impact on morale.
An estimated 2,380 Myanmar junta soldiers were killed and around 600 wounded during the last month, according to the parallel National Unity Government.
Between Dec. 7 and Jan. 6, 1,077 blasts and attacks targeting junta forces were reported across the country, except in Rakhine State.
Source The Irrawaddy, 10th January 2022.
David Scott Mathieson, an independent researcher on Myanmar made an interesting assessment of the rise of PDFs.
When you look at the skills of the PDF’s, it’s important to recognize that seven months ago they were not PDFs. This is a brand-new phenomenon: the fact that they’ve been staging attacks in different areas and are still going. And they are getting better weapons, as well as designing and manufacturing their own weapons.
Seven months ago, they had nothing and now they are making mines and rockets. They are attacking a lot of convoys. If the sophistication of their attacks increases with the sophistication of their weapons, they can inflict a lot more damage, especially with improvised explosive devices.
If the PDF’s actually reach the point where they can attack targets like military bases and large concentrations of soldiers, then that should really worry the military. What will happen when the PDF’s actually know what they are doing and have better weapons?
Source The Irrawaddy, 10th January 2022.
In a show of “in your face” resistance, various groups are increasing their attacks in Yangon. What used to be a safe posting for soldiers has now become dangerous, with again a detrimental effect on morale.
Dozens of junta troops and regime-appointed ward administrators were reportedly killed in Yangon in the first week of 2022, as several People’s Defence Forces (PDF) escalated their attacks on military regime targets.
Yangon experienced few attacks for most of last month, following the arrest of dozens of people in mid-November for allegedly conducting deadly attacks on junta targets.
But since the last week of December, resistance forces have stepped up their activities again. Yangon residents have been urged by PDFs to stay away from junta forces and to avoid regime-controlled government offices because they may be attacked.
On Friday morning, Urban Phoenix Force, a local PDF, reportedly detonated a remote-controlled bomb at a police housing block. The attack was a warning to police and their families to not work for the regime and instead stand with the people defying military rule.
At least two regime soldiers were killed in Yangon’s Hlaing Tharyar Township on Thursday morning when the Spring Revolution Flames (SRF) resistance group attacked seven troops who were checking and seizing the motorbikes of residents, according to the SRF.
Another resistance group claimed to have attacked regime forces and regime-appointed ward administrators at an office in Hlaing Tharyar on Tuesday with a homemade bomb. The PDF claimed that there were many casualties.
Early Thursday morning, a combined force of several PDF’s attacked 30 junta soldiers deployed at a football pitch in North Okkalapa Township with an M79 grenade launcher.
A video shows a resistance fighter firing three rounds from the grenade launcher at the regime forces. There were at least 10 junta casualties from the attack, the group said.
On Tuesday night, another combined force used a remote-controlled mine to attack troops who were inspecting the aftermath of an explosion near Mahlwagone train station in Tamwe Township.
Three regime soldiers were reportedly killed and some wounded, said the Hmawbi Revolution Force, who organized the attack.
Source The Irrawaddy 7th January 2022.
My remaining sources report that Yangon is becoming increasingly dangerous, and it is difficult to live anything like a normal life. The risk of injury is constant.
With the increased tensions in the world, especially in Ukraine and Kazakhstan Myanmar has been removed from the world stage, but it is still there, and 2022 will see the Junta increasingly on the back foot.