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I must confess I didn’t even watch the first leaders’ debate on Tuesday evening, though I didn’t watch any of the Labour/National debates in 2017 or 2014. They’re contests in which I don’t have a horse to back. I like cricket a lot too, but without a bet, Zimbabwe vs. West Indies just isn’t the same as a match with the Black Caps.
I listen to ZB on the drive to work each morning and Hosking rated Collins over Ardern but that is nothing out of the ordinary and didn’t rouse any further interest. Hosking also criticised John Campbell’s performance as moderator and my mind was made up about Campbell over a decade ago. However, it seems Collins had a hell of a good day in light of her debate performance, if what I was hearing on Magic Talk driving home is any measure. Ryan Bridge’s libertarian tendencies are well evident and it’s enjoyable listening to someone saying things you agree with after a day at work.
On Wednesday I sat down to watch the debate on YouTube, with the luxury of being able to skip through the crap bits. There were a lot of crap bits. Who the hell crippled John Campbell? He looks like a hobbling Hobbiton Hobbit clutching his clipboard and gushing at being allowed on prime time TV for the first time in many years. Thanking Ardern and Collins multiple times for participating and apologising for asking mildly troubling questions, he looked like the winner of the Make A Wish Foundation’s prize for dying careers.
Political debates should be verbal bloodsports. Soundbites interjected where and when it hurts, facts and percentages produced with authority, messages delivered at a confident tempo with excellent timing. John Campbell wanted to spend the hour reaching a consensus on how the next government should proceed with a round of Kumbaya to wrap things up.
With both participants being women for the first time in New Zealand history (Shipley and Clark crossed swords in multi-leaders’ debates if I recall correctly), I think it is crucial we dissect both candidates’ clothing first. As a gay man, it is my right and privilege to be shallow and bitchy and you’re not going to take that away from me. In any case, male politicians all wear suits. If it fits and isn’t double-breasted, it’s hard to go wrong.
Collins’s hair was immaculately styled, coloured and held together with deliberate care. The dark suit jacket and skirt with wide-heel shoes: authoritatively feminine. Collins is ready to get down to business any time. Ardern’s shaggy hair, oversized jacket, rolled up sleeves accompanied by swinging her arms at 90-degree angles from her elbows, reminded me of a basket of laundry returned by the laundromat with a note saying “no thanks”. I guess that image appeals to a certain type of voter but you wouldn’t want to borrow from their wardrobes either.
With the important parts of the debate now covered, let’s look at the opening comments. At just 30 seconds each, TVNZ did themselves a disservice. Good evening followed by a pause and breath takes ten per cent of the time allotted. Instinctively, Ardern’s opening remarks required she take more than her fair share of time. Collins’s comments were made exactly within the buzzer but they were words that could have been uttered by any politician.
The first question of the night was about the Colmar-Brunton poll and how poorly National has performed in it. Historically, New Zealand doesn’t have single-term Governments if the Prime Minister is still alive at the end of it. It has been 60 years since a Labour Government taxed its way back to the opposition benches in three years. Collins batted that question away saying many Opposition Leaders would “crawl over broken glass” to get 18% in the preferred Prime Minister poll and that she is a fighter. The energy with which she delivered that response was barely containable and watching her, I believed it. Dan Bidois trotted out the ‘fighter rhetoric’ in the 2018 Northcote by-election and was nowhere near as convincing.
On the same question, Ardern had to talk down her chances of winning a single-party majority because it’s blatantly obvious that MMP won’t permit one and smugness would have hurt her at a time when more than one party leader is finally getting some TV time post-Lockdown 2.0. She used ten sentences to say what one would have achieved; Labour will work hard to get your vote. An obligatory and entirely predictable response but one that should be given quickly.
When the debate moved on to concluding the ravages of COVID 19 and opening the borders, Ardern’s response revealed more than she would have realised. The multiple agencies she mentioned as being involved in managing the isolation of overseas arrivals revealed precisely how disorganised and confused the management of this crucial protection is. Her defence of our open economy and the role it is has apparently played in ensuring New Zealand weathers the storm better than most made less sense than a carload of drunken teenagers yelling out the window.
The pursing of the lips and arching of an eyebrow by Collins summed up the feelings of anyone who is not a Labour sycophant. Finally, National has genuine plans to present in this campaign that have developed beyond saying “we have a plan”. Creating a single Border Protection Agency to manage the entry process, reserving entry to passengers who have returned a negative test, and charging incomers for a portion of the cost of their isolation is far more credible than Labour accidentally preventing a flood of infections. The conclusion that we should treat workers from COVID-free Pacific islands the same way Miss Ardern treats the Australian rugby team was good.
When it came to infrastructure, hospitals spread out to the Auckland Harbour bridge. Collins was quick to point out National had a plan to build a tunnel by 2028. That tunnel would run parallel to the existing harbour bridge which is pointless because the congestion isn’t on the Harbour Bridge. The congestion is on SH1 leading to the Bridge both ways and every street that feeds that motorway. I pitched a second harbour crossing in 2018 which I recently covered in “I hate to say I told you so.” John Key had promised this crossing in 2013. In 2020, we still haven’t managed to attach the multi-million dollar Skypath to the existing bridge and both parties are equally at fault.
As an aside, I miss the old Judith Collins. I loved the Judith Collins that replied to a question about a particular wetlands by calling them swamps and adding “go and find someone who actually cares because I don’t.” I miss the Judith Collins who criticised Meteria Turei in the house for making speeches about poverty while wearing a $1300 jacket. Asked about her comments afterwards she remarked that it really was an ugly jacket. I understand that I’m on the political fringe and she needs to appeal to the centre but I smile whenever Collins utters an acerbic response with sardonic dismissiveness, and we were all treated to that on the next topic: What will your children be grateful for in a few decades time?
Ardern chose the Government’s planned response to climate change and their plan to generate 100% renewable energy by 2030. I couldn’t believe she chose a policy of economic decimation to an issue that cannot be stopped. Even Campbell looked highly sceptical though it is hard to tell through his thick glasses. Collins didn’t just wait to respond, she drove the nonsense bulldozer right through that answer. The business case alone for pumped hydro has cost $30 million to put together, residential customers face paying an extra 14% for power while industrial customers could see 30% or more added to their energy bills. Collins crushed waffling with facts!
Quick question on the voting age: should it be lowered to 16?
Collins: No.
Ardern: We can’t rule it out in the future. Let’s get civics right first.
Campbell: Is that a yes or a no?
Collins: Just like cannabis. Can’t say, huh.
On the question of Pacific Island children being taken out of school early to find jobs to support their families, Collins faltered and looked awkward. “My husband is also Samoan, so Talofoa…” I don’t doubt her empathy but Collins isn’t an empathy politician, she is a conviction politician and should stick to her knitting (that’s not sexist; I just hate the term ‘stay in your lane,’ usually uttered by fat women who require a bus lane).
Ardern’s solution to the struggles of families earning low incomes is to increase the minimum wage by 18% over three years. Great if you’re not one of the 400 people losing their jobs each day, not if you’re a small business owner or finding yourself on a benefit as a result of the increased cost of labour. Campbell turned the argument to tax cuts, pointing out those on the minimum wage would only get $8.50, and the tax cuts are meant to be a stimulus package but “one of the first rules of stimulus is that you must give it to lower-income earners who will spend their tax cut.” The correct response is that tax cuts at higher income levels drive greater stimulus because they encourage investment rather than just consumption but the trickle-down theory isn’t a vote winner. Collins’ response that National’s tax cut package would benefit the average earner, such as teachers and nurses, was clever. She could have mentioned supermarket workers too because it has been over a decade and I want my goddamn tax cut.
Ardern interrupted by saying “She shouldn’t get a tax cut. It is irresponsible to offer tax cuts and that tax cut would come out of the COVID recovery fund. To which Collins replied, with a passion that us middle-income owners share, “That is borrowed money and it’s not fair. It is not fair to people.”
The issue that I believe worked strongly in Collins’s favour was her stand on replacing the Resource Management Act. It’s been a fringe policy wonk debate for over twenty years. It has been reformed, appallingly, nine times. It has grown bigger each time and National was just as much to blame in 2016 when John Key chose to play politics with the Maori Party instead of using the votes of United Future and Act. However, I actually believe Judith Collins this time and there is a very real prospect of the largest Act caucus in New Zealand history being in a position to make sure she follows through on those promises.
Ardern fluffed through the whole debate in 2nd gear. Judith Collins had her foot flat on the accelerator by the end. She mopped the floor with Jacinda over child poverty: an issue National doesn’t play too well ordinarily. Her closing statement pushed the Resource Management Act issue again, with soundbites that appeal to middle New Zealand and mentioning how Kiwibuild flopped precisely because of the RMA was a point well made.
The winner: Judith Collins
The loser: John Campbell
Participation certificate: the Prime Minister.
The pressure is going to be squarely on Ardern in next week’s Leader’s Debate on 3.
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