Assuming there are no major changes in the New Zealand political landscape before November next year, we can look forward to seeing Bridges and Ardern in the usual televised leaders’ debates.
There’s little doubt that Ardern will still be Labour leader. There’s no way the intellectually challenged serial lunkheads of the party, and/or their closest affiliates in the trade union movement, will allow the political slaughter of the goose that laid their golden egg, so count on her being there.
The million-dollar question has to be – will Simon Bridges make it through another year?
Visualize what those debates might look like. Hosking was well balanced and even handed last time fronting on TV One and he has a good understanding and grasp of our political environment. He doesn’t let them off the hook easily and there’s no obvious reason why they wouldn’t use him again.
Assuming TV3 is still in business, they’ll no doubt provide their own debate. They don’t have a “stand out” performer like Hosking but they do have some talented people they can call on. Unfortunately, Paddy Gower is NOT one of them and if they repeat with him, the viewers will vote with their remotes.
So to the political protagonists.
Bill English, with his many years of experience, was composed and knowledgeable, with a clear understanding of financial management. He talked confidently on a wide range of subjects because he’d been in the engine room. He looked prime ministerial. Does Bridges have any of his skills?
Jacinda is a good communicator and came across well despite much of what she said being lightweight or lacking in substance. She held her own and while it would be a stretch to say she won, she scored reasonably well against a much more seasoned opponent. Anyway, both she and the audience knew: Labour were never going to win – AND THEY DIDN’T. Thank you very much Winston.
People who know Simon Bridges are at pains to say he’s a nice bloke and very smart.
We’ve all had the opportunity to observe his skills during question time in parliament. We’ve seen him and heard him in interviews on TV and radio. We’ve seen him front press conferences. He’s a 5 out of 10 at best and then only on a good day.
All things considered, it’s hard to see how he can make enough changes to his way of operating and presenting, to make him appealing to the electorate. He hasn’t been able to break 10% in the preferred prime minister polls and it’s almost inconceivable that he will get there in the next 10 to 11 months.
Does being popular matter? Simon doesn’t seem to think so and he might well turn out to be right. MMP is not the same as FPP and it’s likely the election will be won or lost not on the popularity of the leader, but on how many mates have seats when the polls close. Nevertheless, National – you have a problem.