Here we go again, BFD readers: another instalment in “The Guardian: I read it so you don’t have to”, an intermittent series by your long-suffering correspondent.
In this episode, I suffer through two Guardianista opinion pieces on New Zealand politics: one a stew of utter bollocks from a communist crazy cat lady, the other…well, actually half-interesting.
Insofar as it’s possible to make sense out of the gibbering stew of resentment and half-informed “commentary” that’s Badham’s piece, the gist seems to be: Simon Bridges shouldn’t look to Scott Morrison for advice, because Australian Labor wuz robbed. Plus Cindy is nice.
[Bridges is] polling as preferred prime minister at 9%. Yes. Mind you, Ardern has suffered a recent local 11% “crash” in popularity – down to 38.4%.
Even when she’s dealing in indisputable facts, Van Badham’s “analysis” is woeful. It’s true that Bridges is a shocker, but then, Bill Shorten was the most unpopular opposition leader in Australian history. Yet Badham was convinced he would lead Labor to victory.
As for Ardern’s popularity: it’s worth considering that Kevin Rudd was streets ahead of her in opinion poll popularity even in June 2010 – the very month he was turfed out of office. But Rudd, too, had suffered a similar “crash”. When “popular” prime ministers with no substantial achievements to fall back on begin to slide in the polls, it can very quickly become catastrophic.
Watching the polls, New Zealand commentators are right to suggest that Ardern’s government cannot afford to be complacent – especially with National retaining a lead over Labour in its party-wide vote.
But […]New Zealand, for one, has no Clive Palmer.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/08/could-scott-morrisons-tactics-defeat-jacinda-ardern-in-the-new-zealand-election
Here the “we wuz robbed” whining begins in earnest. Palmer, for all his braggadocio and deep pockets, made almost no mark on the election.
Badham almost says something interesting when she points to New Zealand’s MMP system. But, again, she completely misses the point. Where Badham indulges in Democrat-style whining about Australia’s proportional system, it falls to another Guardianisto to pick up on the rumbling portents.
In the end, all eyes will be on a handful of low-polling minor parties that could wield influence well beyond their size and ultimately determine the outcome […] Currently, the minor parties have very low levels of support and may not survive beyond the next election. In recent times, New Zealanders have shied away from supporting these minnows. In fact, since the introduction of the mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1996, every single minor party that has been in government has subsequently been punished with a worse election result.
This is where the real danger for Ardern’s COL lies. Edwards is well aware of what starry-eyed Badham seems not to have grasped: Ardern only got into power by assembling a coalition of losing parties. It’s a precarious situation for a government, no matter how much the media love the leader (and even that love is wearing notably thin, of late).
Survival is complicated by a threshold in the MMP system. To get into parliament, parties need to either reach 5% of the national vote or win an electorate seat […]The two most important parties for Ardern’s survival are the current coalition partners, the Greens (currently with 6-7% support in opinion polls) and the nationalist New Zealand First (3-4% support).
But there are no guarantees the Greens will make it over 5% […]On current polling, Winston Peters’ New Zealand First would be out of parliament. Although many expect their support will pick up in election year, it’s far from certain, and they have dropped below 5% in two elections before, both times after periods in government.
This is the real danger for Ardern: her prime ministership is built on some very shifty sands. None shiftier than her deputy prime minister, who is apt to blow with the wind as it suits him.
In 2020, the minor parties are the ones to watch. They will determine if Jacinda Ardern gets a second term. Ardern will continue to wipe the floor with Bridges when it comes to personal popularity. But this will count for nothing if she hasn’t got enough coalition friends.
theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/07/jacinda-ardern-has-a-major-problem-with-minor-parties-and-it-could-seal-her-fate
While Simon Bridges remains leader, it seems highly unlikely that National can pull off a Morrison-style surprise. But Labour have no reason for sleeping soundly as election year looms.