Why Kris gave up his seat is a mystery to me. He could always have stayed on and gone on the list as well. He would be guaranteed a high place on the list as he is seen as one of the more competent (yes I know that is not saying much)
Kris is a popular MP in his electorate. His candidate vote tracks well ahead of his party vote proportion.
Take Kris out of that electorate and the candidate vote may revert back to close to the party vote proportions. The party vote for labour will also drop as Kris is abandoning them.
The Green vote looks consistent between candidate and party, so probably won’t move much. They look to vote along party lines.
Nat’s Euon Murrell is a solid candidate with a background that you could trust. He will not appeal to the far left but the center could see him as a good candidate. He will need to work hard now he has been given an opportunity. Chris Bishop did well to win his seat through hard work and lots of street walking. Euon should do the same.
Add in a movement away from NZF and a lower TOP vote and Mana could end up a close call
William Felt