OPINION

The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll should be giving the National Party cause for concern as they continue to slide in the polls.

National is down on last month to 35.4% (-1.9 points) while Labour is also down marginally on 29.4% (-0.6 points).

The Greens remain in third place up 2.5 points on last month to 12.7% while ACT is relatively unchanged on 9.7% (+0.3 points).

New Zealand First is also steady on 5.6% (+0.1 points) and Te Pati Maori is up 0.9 points to 4.0%.

For the minor parties, Outdoors & Freedom is on 1.3%, TOP is on 0.8%, Vision NZ is on 0.5%, the New Conservatives are on 0.1%, and the combined total for all other parties is 0.5%.

PartySupportChange from last month
National35.4%down 1.9
Labour29.4%down 0.6
Green12.7%up 2.5
ACT9.7%up 0.3
NZ First5.6%up 0.1
Maori4.0%up 0.9
Other3.2%down 1.3
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament, assuming all electorate seats are held:

National is down three seats on last month to 44 and Labour is also down one seat to 36.

The Greens are up three seats to 16 while ACT is unchanged on last month on 12.

Both NZ First and Te Pati Maori are unchanged on last month on seven and six seats, respectively. 

This calculation assumes that all electorate seats are held. A Parliament on these figures would include one overhang seat.

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

And things aren’t rosy for the leaders either:

Christopher Luxon’s net favourability is down 13 points on last month to -5% to put him behind Chris Hipkins who is up 4 points to 3%.

Both David Seymour and Winston Peters see drops in their net favourability from last month to put them on -18% (-11 points) and -19% (-14 points), respectively.

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll

National are sliding in most public polls and you can easily see what the problem is: it’s Christopher Luxon. When Chris Hipkins is beating you in net favourables, then there is a problem – and the problem is Luxon just isn’t likeable. He’s no John Key, and when you always see him playing pocket billiards then you do have to wonder if his heart is even in the job.

National need to do something fairly soon to arrest this slide because the public certainly aren’t seeing Christopher Luxon as any sort of answer.

The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1,000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between 4 and 6 June 2024, has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%, and 4.4% were undecided on the party vote question. The full results are at www.taxpayers.org.nz/nztu_curia_2406_poll.


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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...