The eighth Roy Morgan poll in a row shows that there would be a change of government if an election were held today. The poll also shows just how soft National’s support is, and how prone to self-inflicted negative stories Christopher Luxon has become.

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support tightening between a potential National/ Act NZ (46%) coalition now only 1.5% points ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens (44.5%). The gap is the smallest since Christopher Luxon became National Leader in late November.

Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition dropped by 2.5% points to 46% in July while Luxon holidayed in Hawaii, despite social media posts claiming he was in New Zealand, while support for Labour/ Greens was up 1% point to 44.5%.

In July support for National fell by 4% points to 35% to its lowest since January 2022 while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ was up slightly by 1.5% points to 11%, its highest since February 2022. 

In contrast there were slight increases in support for Labour, up 0.5% points to 34% to its highest level so far this year and a similar increase for the Greens, up 0.5% points to 10.5%.

The drop in support for National appears to have largely benefited the Maori Party for which support increased by 2.5% points to 4% – its highest level of support for over a decade since April 2010.

In addition, a minority of 5.5% of electors (down 1% point) support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 1.5%, The Opportunities Party was up 0.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was up 0.5% points to 1% in July.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 937 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 5%, unchanged, did not name a party.

Roy Morgan

It is highly unlikely that National’s support went to the Maori Party…more likely impossible actually. What is more likely is that weak National support went to Labour and Labour’s support went to the Maori Party.

Women are still letting everyone down with a majority still supporting the regime:

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 53% compared to only 44% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support more evenly split with 48.5% supporting Labour/ Greens just ahead of the 46.5% supporting National/Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, is now attracting the support of 5% of women including 9% of women aged 18-49 and 1% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 51.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In July 49.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 37.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 55% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 38.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of men including 4% support from men aged 18-49 and 2% support from men aged 50+.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Around one-in-six women aged 18-49 (17%) and men aged 18-49 (16.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4.5% of women aged 50+ and just 4% of men aged 50+.

Roy Morgan

Christopher Luxon is going to have to stop shooting himself in the foot with self-inflicted negative stories. He needs to realise that the mainstream media hate him and are a lock for the left. But he steadfastly refuses to engage with more friendly media. That’s not working out so well for him at the moment, with momentum stalled or going backwards.

Meanwhile, the Government confidence rating continues to take a pounding, still plumbing negative depths.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 2pts in July to 89.5. The indicator is now down a massive 31.5pts from a year ago in July 2021.

In July only 40.5% (up 1.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51% (down 0.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 1.4pts to 81.9 and is now just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 84.1 on July 25-31, 2022.

Roy Morgan

Again it is women who seem to have a far rosier picture of the economy and the Government than is warranted by reality.

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was clearly higher for women than men in July, but the gap did narrow by 6 points on a month ago.

Among women now 48% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 42% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 94 (down 1pt).

Though down, a clear majority of men, 54.5% (down 2.5% points) now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just under two-fifths of men, 39% (up 2.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 84.5 (up 5pts).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 50+ at 94 while for women aged 18-49 it is lower at 89. There is little difference for men of different ages with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 84 and slightly higher for men aged 50+ at 85.

Roy Morgan

When those women wake up and smell the coffee, then Ardern is in terrible trouble. No amount of hugs and frowny faces will help women with grocery bills or mortgage payments.

This was a middling poll, and one National should have done better in – save for the missteps and self-inflicted foolishness of Christopher Luxon. Perhaps if he is seen to be cuddling up to Ardern on the trip to Samoa that might change a little bit.

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As much at home writing editorials as being the subject of them, Cam has won awards, including the Canon Media Award for his work on the Len Brown/Bevan Chuang story. When he’s not creating the news,...