July 20th, 2022.
Well, the last vote took place by the MPs and it will result in long-term resentment and festering antagonism that will take a long time to heal.
Today’s results
20 JLY 19 JLY
Rishi Sunak E 137 118
Liz Truss F 113 86
ELIMINATED
Penny Mordaunt F 105 92
The TV analyses from Westminster have formed the view that most of the MPs that voted for Badenoch switched their support behind Truss. Mordaunt was smeared with a perceived history of “wokeness” that she couldn’t shake off.
Sunak and Truss will now travel the country visiting conservative party branches and making countless TV appearances as they reach out to the 160,000 members. There is an element of anyone but Sunak and even though Mordaunt and Truss’s supporters distrust each other they will to an extent join forces to stop Sunak.
The worst accusations thrown at Sunak during the campaign were that he wasn’t a closet socialist, but that he was an out and out socialist pretending to be a Conservative. It may seem odd, but one of the factors that caused the resentment against Sunak wasn’t his wealth or his US green card issue, it was that his campaign looked as though it had been planned for a long time and it was far too slick and professional.
At times he has come across as showing a lack of understanding of the “working people” and having a lack of empathy with the population at large. Funnily enough, his ethnic background has not come across as a negative, not even amongst grass roots Conservatives, but his perceived arrogance has turned many away from him.
The latest bookies’ odds are 8/15 for Truss and 11/8 for Sunak.
The winner will be announced on September 5th, so there are about 6 weeks of campaigning to go.
There is speculation from the non-members as to who will cause the most damage to the economy. The negatives for Sunak are that he put through huge tax increases until they are at their highest for 70+ years. That is just not in line with traditional Conservative policy, even though he did it to avoid increasing borrowings to high levels. This is causing much hardship amongst the low paid and the country is now flooded with wage demands and the threats of strikes throughout the summer.
The negatives for Truss are that she will reduce the tax increases and put money back into circulation. This could be inflationary and require increased borrowing. Inflation is forecast to be 12% by February 2023. Today’s inflation figure is 9.4%. She has also caused friction with other world leaders in her role as foreign secretary.
It will be an interesting few weeks.
Johnson made his last appearance at Prime Minister’s Question time today as the Commons is now closed for the summer recess. His leaving applause was less than appreciative, with the Labour party not joining in as much as before. The show of appreciation for the Prime Minister’s service was less than enthusiastic, as is normally the case on their departure from office.