The BFD | Friday Fact – Mound Becomes Mountain

Today’s Friday Fact is brought to you by The Facts. Did you know that this Government’s Net Core Crown Debt doubled in just three years? The debt mound has become a mountain.

Are we OK with this increase in government debt?

Notes:

The data series provided by Treasury started in the June 2012 year.
We have used blue and red colour-coding to show which political party led the government in each year.
The June 2018 year shows dual colours due to the election taking place on 23 September 2017, NZ First choosing their government coalition partner on 19 October, and the Labour-led Government governing from 26 October.
We only showed one forecast year on the graph (2023) due to:
- The large variance between the 2022 actuals and the 2021 budget. See last week’s fact.
- There is a general election in the 2024 year which could change Crown revenue, spending, and debt levels significantly.
Net Core Crown Debt is the most commonly used economic indicator for government debt.
We chose not to use the new debt metric that includes the NZSF (New Zealand Super Fund) and other amounts, due to:
- The controversy surrounding this change.
- Data tables from 2012-2023 only being available for the previous metric.
The 2022 figure contains actuals to March 31st and then the Treasury forecast to June 30th.
The 2023 forecast figure assumes net debt of $164 billion and GDP of $401 billion to get the 41% of GDP figure. These are forecast figures, so could change significantly.
We’ve shown both $ and % values to help Kiwis better understand Crown/Government debt relative to GDP.
Additional notes from Treasury can be found in the data source pages below.
All numbers are provisional and subject to revision.