JL
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
This phrase describes the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments.
Or, in the case of this draconian government and its minions at the Ministry of Selective Health, to use numbers to prolong lockdowns until 90 per cent of us succumb to the vax-a-thon.
Just how many people have been vaccinated for each DHB is garnered by the Ministry’s Health Service Utilisation Population data.
The HSU is an “estimate” of the NZ population using health data. This helps to determine the number of people in each DHB’s catchment.
Within the HSU framework are a myriad of estimations, the need for information “gap filling” and an unholy reliance on one of this government’s first botch-jobs when it came to power: the much-maligned shambles that was New Zealand’s 2018 census.
Its author resigned when an estimated 700,000 Kiwis either did not participate or did not fully complete the questionnaire.
Data were meant to confirm the number of people within each DHB to help allocate funding. It is debatable whether there was enough information to achieve even this.
In the HSU’s first incarnation as an online data gathering system, respondents did not have a computer or the nous to use a computer or just didn’t bother to fill it in.
Stats NZ reluctantly began releasing tidbits of info from the census 18 months after the survey was conducted.
Because the census was incomplete, some data never saw the light of day.
For example, Stats NZ did not release statistical counts of iwi because of the level of missing “iwi affiliation” data and the lack of alternative government data sources to fill the gaps.
The HSU says ethnicity, as recorded in health data, may also be “inconsistent with how people self-identify in the Census”.
So even when coupled with other sources they still don’t know who is Maori or what iwi, if any, they most identify with.
Taupo, Rotorua Lakes, Kawerau, Whakatane, Opotiki, Gisborne, Wairoa, Rangitikei, Whanganui and Ruapehu districts all remained at level Red till December 30.
Northland has to wait till politicians are back from their summer holidays to find out if they can go to Orange.
Could the lack of data be why, even after a court order, the MoH is withholding Maori vaccination data from Maori Health providers like Te Kohao Health?
In a November RNZ story, Managing director at Te Kohao Health, Lady Tureiti Moxon, said the limited data that was reluctantly proffered didn’t give a full and detailed description of where Maori were during the outbreak.
“Quite often the data that we do get is lacking,” she said, “It’s not actually accurate data.”
The MoH is not averse to withholding information either when they don’t have it or it is inconvenient to the narrative.
The Ministry apologised for “unreasonable” delays and refusals to release information relating to supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE).
It took 17 months to respond to an OIA request which has a statutory requirement for a 20-day turnaround.
The refusal coincided with chants from front-line hospital staff saying they had little or no PPE to protect them from harm during a pandemic and back then the ministry maintained we need not wear face masks.
On the HSU site, the MoH reveals some other alarming limitations to its data collection, which again highlights the doubts over vaccine-compliance rates.
The HSU, which overestimates the total population, only captures people who are enrolled with a PHO or use health services.
Healthy people don’t go to the doctor; neither do young people unless they’re pregnant, nor do marginalised groups such as “rural Maori”.
Some enrolled in a PHO are not even currently in New Zealand. Some have died overseas.
The number of ex-pat Kiwis scattered around the globe is massive, with some estimates now suggesting more than one million New Zealanders are living overseas.
In September a new one-off residence visa would also skew the stats when up to 160,000 work visa holders were able to remain in New Zealand permanently…which doctor, if any, have they visited?
We also shoved at least 20,000 people through MIQ double vaxed into the mix even though they had taken a myriad of vaccines from other countries’ roll-outs.
Privately funded hospital data can vary. Data entry errors can also contribute to inaccuracy. And if each contributing dataset has a different ethnicity recorded, which one does the MoH pick?
The HSU also highlights duplication concerns across the DHBs. This means people, possibly those that have migrated from one province to another, or even between the three Auckland DHBs, are being counted more than once, or not at all.
These data need to take into account the tens of thousands migrating from Auckland since 2018 to find cheaper housing. In most provinces, the number of Aucklanders living next door is staggering.
So I think we’ve established that the numbers are based on estimates from a mish-mash of often unrelated sources including the incomplete, therefore useless, census.
And why should this be of concern?
Because the image building PR hacks at the Ministry will have been rubbing their hands with glee at not being constrained by actual facts and figures.
A margin of error is how far from an estimate we think the true value might be in either direction.
If you set a ten percent margin of error, 80 percent vaccinated could actually mean 70 or 90 per cent. This gives a 20 percent variation.
The vagaries of the data gives wiggle room in the percentages tabled from each DHB depending on what number best promotes the preferred narrative.
This is a powerful psychological tool that could make those who have refused feel as if they are part of a much smaller minority.
At the early stages, inflating the numbers could also indicate a larger and more enthusiastic uptake.
But for those still panicking about standing next to an unvaccinated person, the actual numbers could also mean lower than anticipated vaccine rates in your neighbourhoods.
Amazingly, most DHBs reached these draconian targets just before Christmas. That’s handy for a government dropping in the polls.
Remember when there were just 23,000 people needing second doses for the remaining Auckland DHBs to reach the magical cut off….so agonisingly close but far enough away to prolong the restrictions some more.
Can we truly trust the New Zealand government to be that accurate when they are so damn determined to jab the lot of us?
The restrictions in Auckland alone have meant businesses suffered crippling debt, let staff go or closed their doors. It costs the economy tens of millions of dollars each and every week.
At the same time, gun violence is escalating, essential medical interventions and surgeries were put on hold, and our collective mental health is waning.
One week less in lockdown would be the difference for many.
The cynic in me, and believe me, the cynicism is rising by the day like a thermometer in a cup of boiling water, does not trust the numbers.