The Taxpayers Union released yesterday the latest Curia poll for them. It showed Labour still able to form a Government with the Greens, but that the gap had closed from 20% in September to 7% in November.
The more salient trend is what has happened this year with the country direction – a question where you ask if things are heading in the right or wrong direction.
As you can see there has been a massive change this year. This predates the August 2021 lockdown. I believe the earlier tightening was related to the lack of progress on issues such as house prices, and then in August Covid struck again. At first, we saw a rallying effect when there was a drop in those saying the wrong direction, but this reversed in October and accelerated in November.
Normally summer holidays are good for Governments as people have a relaxing time and tune out of politics. So normally I would expect to see the net direction improve early next year. However, this may be linked to whether people actually get to have a summer holiday, and are not locked down. So I would be very very surprised if the PM doesn’t move all of NZ to the traffic light system in early December, regardless of vaccination rates in Northland and Gisborne.