Months ago I wrote about how you should look at polls, that they were like assessing the impact of a river on river banks and that depending on where you are standing it affects how you see the polls.
Labour supporters have been cock-a-hoop for a long time about polling without being aware that they were standing on the high bank looking at National on the other side struggling with a flood.
Little by little the river, or voter sentiment, has been eroding Labour’s bank right under their feet. Two per cent here, two per cent there. The government and its bought and paid for media propagandists have focused on the headline numbers and ignored the trend. That trend has been inexorable and now we can see, from the latest Roy Morgan poll that Labour has shed a boatload of support, from the low 50s down to under 40%:
Despite the concerted push by out-of-touch pundits with an axe to grind, National’s caucus has knuckled down and put in the hard yards, and as a result shown that a bit of caucus discipline, and ignoring those on the outside wishing harm on the party, has had a positive result on the poll rating. National has gone up 3% in this poll, and the much-heralded October putsch has vanished in a cloud of embarrassment for the agitators.
This is a bad poll for Labour as they have fallen under the psychological 40% barrier. This poll is the first indicator of the turning away of voters from whatever Labour has to say about anything.
Ears are now metaphorically open to alternative views; the 50% majority has evaporated; a contest can now be had about ideas. The electorate is finally willing and able to listen. All National has to do now is exactly the same as they did in 2008 after people tired of the Clarkist regime. Don’t rock the boat, offer a credible alternative and now start converting more of those being shed from Labour to supporting National. The left vs right divide is now a mere 8%.
The government now appears rattled and inept in the handling of the delta outbreak. They are reacting with increasingly bewildering decisions that make no sense. They failed to keep delta out in the first place, a forlorn dream, but one they tried nonetheless. Then they tried a “short and sharp” lockdown and Aucklanders are now in their 12th week of an economy and job-destroying lockdown. We are no further ahead and, while the government still blathers on about protecting hospital capacity, they have still done nothing to actually materially change or improve the health sector so that they can deal with this pandemic.
They’ve shown what their priorities are, and it isn’t protecting the health system. How else can you explain the folly of announcing massive infrastructure projects like a billion-dollar bike bridge, since cancelled, and a $14 billion dollar light rail system to the airport? There is no money for an ICU hospital even though it would cost way less than even the bike bridge was going to cost.
No, the priority of this government has been anti-democratic at the least and outright fascist at the extreme. Local government representation has been destroyed by removing the will of the people. Three Waters confiscation of water assets of councils is being rammed through, creating a central government and Maori controlled behemoth. Add to that the destruction of District Health Boards with another central government takeover of health in the middle of a pandemic.
All of these reforms are an order of magnitude several times larger than their failure to deliver affordable housing. They couldn’t build a house in a room full of Lego. How they think that they can embark on and succeed at those reforms is mind-boggling.
The slow slide is on. Things are not going to get better for either Labour or the Prime Minister. The delta outbreak, instead of keeping their polling high, is now harming them. The “short and sharp” lockdown has failed but Aucklanders are still being held to ransom by an increasingly dictatorial Prime Minister.
The turning away is real and the momentary lapse of reason has extended to being endemic and obvious.
On the turning away From the pale and downtrodden And the words they say Which we won’t understand "Don’t accept that what’s happening Is just a case of all the suffering Or you’ll find that you’re joining in The turning away"
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