There is a huge lack of clarity over what vaccination rates will allow Auckland (and now Waikato) to come out of lockdown. There is an assumption that 90% of the eligible population being vaccinated will be enough, but according to the modelling the PM promoted at her press conference, this would in fact lead to 7,000 dying. Now personally I think it won’t, but the problem is that the PM hosted a press conference where they said it would.
In talking about vaccine rates, it is important to clarify if we are talking about the total population, the 5+ population or the eligible (12+) population.
According to Stats NZ we have 5.12 million residents. There are 4.82 million residents aged 5+ and 4.36 million aged 12+.
We currently have 3.36 million who have had at least one dose. This is 77.2% of the eligible population, 69.8% of the 5+ population and 65.6% of the total population.
The PM’s press conference said that if 80% of the 5+ population is vaccinated that would see 7,000 deaths but if we get 90% of the total population vaccinated we are fine. So what are they in real terms?
80% of the 5+ population is 3.85 million and 90% of the total population is 4.61 million. That means if we get an additional 490,000 people vaccinated we still face disaster if opened up, but with an additional 1.25 million we would be fine. Note this latter number would mean vaccinations would have to start occurring for under 5s also.
So when might we achieve 490,000 more people vaccinated? Yesterday we had 17,500 people get their first dose. If (and a big if) that keeps up we get there in 28 days or 3 December. However, you need to wait six weeks for a second dose and two weeks after that for it to be fully effective so eight more weeks is 28 January so 12 weeks away.
So on the current pace, we would get to 80% of 5+ fully and effectively vaccinated in 12 weeks. But again this is still the level which the PMs press conference said would be a disaster. Is the government now saying they would open up?
We have no idea at what level they will. The 90% of the total population level seems a pipe dream as it would require greater than 100% of the eligible population to be vaccinated. What about 95% of the eligible population which is 86% of the 5+ population and 81% of the total population? We would need 4.13 million vaccinated. That is around 44 days at 17,500 a day which is 19 December and eight weeks after that is 13 February.
Even this may be optimistic as it is unclear if the current relatively high rates will keep up, and over Xmas and New Year there must be a drop off. Of course, vaccine mandates may help.
But really it is hard to see lockdowns ending before February next year, and then that leads to another problem. By February some of our vulnerable elderly will have been vaccinated for 11 months, and the effectiveness starts to decline after five to six months. Several countries have already started boosters for over 65s. Can we open up next February if we have not done boosters for the over 65s?
Now it might be the government will just ignore their own modelling promoted at the PM’s press conference and open up earlier. But how do they do that with credibility after lashing National’s reopening plan as a plan to give everyone Covid for Christmas?
But either way, Auckland and probably Waikato look to be locked down for months to come, not weeks.
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